NFL Week 12: Jack and Nate’s Best Bets for Sunday

Sexy Parlay

Denver Broncos @ Carolina Panthers (+1) (o/u 36.5)

The Broncos have the best defense in the league. The much maligned Russell Wilson project in Denver has gone so poorly that the offense is 28th in the NFL in total DVOA for offense. The stat that keeps circulating the betting blogosphere is that the Broncos would be 9-1 if they averaged 18 points per game. Instead, the team is 3-7. Whoops!

The Carolina Panthers continue the quarterback carousel this week as they’ve announced that Sam Darnold will start against the Broncos today. According to Football Outsiders, the Panthers have the 30th worst offense in terms of total DVOA. That’s two spots behind the Broncos. 

Both teams do play fairly fast, but neither can find the end zone much. 

While the Panthers don’t have an elite defense, they have been playing better as of late. Everyone was surprised to see them hold Lamar Jackson to 13 points last Sunday. If they have the secret sauce for Lamar Jackson, you better believe they can figure out Sam Darnold. 

The under is the right play here. Since 2016, games with total points at 37 or less are 14-7. Neither of these teams can score. 

I’m also going to parlay the under with the Panthers +1. This gives me some pretty good odds and the two seem mutually exclusive. If the Panthers cover, it has to be because the under hit.

Washington In Command

Atlanta Falcons @ Washington Commanders (-3.5) (o/u 40.5)

We were all over the Falcons earlier in the year when they ripped off a 6-0 ATS to start the season. The defense looked serviceable. Cordarelle Patterson had the best DYAR for running backs. Kyle Pitts gave the offense a real weapon in the middle of the field. Marcus Mariota did enough to keep them in close games. 

Since that 6-0 start, the Falcons have regressed to the team most people thought they’d be this season. Atlanta is 28th in total DVOA for defense. The passing DVOA numbers are even worse. The secondary gets sliced up by even the most middling of quarterbacks. The Falcons don’t blitz and can’t create pressure. They’re losing games at the line of scrimmage. 

Mariota’s advanced metrics all place him in the middle of the pack. The problem with Mariota is that, if things are going well, Arthur Smith can hide his deficiencies, run the ball, and limit the amount of mistakes Mariota can make. But when the defense is struggling like they have been, the Falcons offense is forced to press the ball, which usually ends poorly for Mariota. 

Oh yeah, and Kyle Pitts is out. 

The Commanders have been trending in the opposite direction. Taylor Heinicke is 5th in DVOA among quarterbacks with 10-164 passes. They don’t necessarily run the ball effectively, so look for Heinicke to throw a lot of dink and dunks against this shaky Atlanta secondary. 

The Commanders defense should fare well against a Falcons offense without Ptts. The Falcons are going to try to run the ball. Good luck. The Commanders have the second best defensive rushing DVOA in the NFL, behind only the Titans. 

This is a matchup nightmare for the Falcons on the road. Lay the 3.5. You won’t be disappointed.

We love Seattle

Las Vegas Raiders @ Seattle Seahawks (-4, o/u 47.5)

Around here at Godzilla Wins, we’ve been preaching for weeks (perhaps months) about the Seahawks. 

They have been darlings for the advanced metrics crowd and for good reason. Despite a slight cooling off in the offensive efficiency after a red hot start, the Seahawks are still playing at a high level. Per Football Outsiders, they are a top-10 team on offense, special teams and overall. Their only weakness has been defense where they rank 17th, but that number has been improving recently after a dreadful start.

The Raiders are just a bad team. They have the worst defensive efficiency according to Football Outsiders and trot out a defense that ranks firmly in the middle of the league at 15th. 

I have no reason to think the Raiders are capable of beating this Seattle team. The Raiders have managed to beat the Broncos twice and the Texans this season. That’s it.

Seattle would be a massive step up, made even more difficult by the fact that McDaniels is frighteningly outmatched by Pete Carroll in the coaching department.

The Seahawks are my ride-or-die team. We ride.

Resurgent Ravens

Baltimore Ravens @ Jacksonville Jaguars (+3.5, o/u 43.5)

The Ravens look like a team that is really rounding into form as the season goes on. They got hit with the injury bug early and struggled to start the season, but this team is rolling now and the addition of Roquan Smith to the defense made an instant impact for that unit.

This line still feels a little bit like a trap to me, and the more I think about it the more uneasy it makes me simply because I don’t understand why Baltimore isn’t favored by more.

Some of it can be explained by the fact that Baltimore has blown some leads this season. And that does give me pause. But these teams are just miles apart in terms of ability. Baltimore is a top-5 team on offense, special teams and overall. The only weak spot is a defense ranked 11th that is ascending the rankings rapidly.

Maybe some of this line is explained because Jacksonville is at home and coming off a bye. But Pederson is horrible off of byes going 1-4 against the spread in his career. And do we really think that home field is worth anything in Jacksonville?

I think Baltimore shuts down the Jags. This total feels a smidge too high. So let’s have two bets for this game.