NFL Turkey Day Picks and Preview: New York Giants at Dallas Cowboys (-10) (o/u 45.5)

Nate's Dallas Demons

NATE: Dallas ruins Thanksgiving for me almost every year, and I cannot get over that when I handicap this game.

Since 2011, the Cowboys are a smooth 1-10 against the spread, which should tell you everything you need to know about how much I enjoy sitting down to watch them while that one family member talks about holistic healing practices and an uncle across the living room discusses stolen elections.

The Cowboys game should be my happy place, but it is not.

I still think the Giants are paper tigers, in that their stats do not indicate that they are a good team. Of course, the Giants lost in a bad way last week so maybe they are losing some of their luster.

That being said, I will not allow the Cowboys to ruin Thanksgiving for me. So, we’re going with the happiness hedge play here. If the Cowboys win and cover, I can live with that as a fan. If they win and don’t cover, that’s the best case scenario. And if the Giants manage to pull a rabbit out of their hat and beat the Cowboys, at least I’ll make some money.

Everybody in the universe is betting on the Cowboys in this game- except me. While the Giants looked particularly pathetic last Sunday against Detroit at home, the Cowboys blew out Minnesota on the road in Dennis Green’s “They are who we thought they were” game. What comes up must come down. What we have learned in this NFL season is highs and lows have a one-week shelf life. 

One clunker stinkpot game does not define the Vikings or signify Dallas. The Giants have a lot to prove on national television in a Thanksgiving Day game. Are they frauds? Is their roster really that poor? Are they just smoke and mirrors? Is 7-3 just luck? Most professional gamblers don’t think much of the this team. Dallas opened at nine and got bet up to 10 in Vegas in one hour. Ouch. No respect.

The game is played on the field not on the Vegas odds board. The Giants manage to hang around a lot of games. I like the 10 here in a “prove we are for real” game for New York. The key is Barclay running the ball 30 times to set up some play action. Micah will get his sacks and harass Daniel Jones all day. Somehow, New York hangs around for the pumpkin pie and a leftover drumstick.

What Goes Up

The Giants are going to begin reverting back to the mean as the season moves on. They are middle of the road in almost every advanced metric. The team has benefited from a fair amount of luck during their impressive win streak. The defense is not that good. Saquon Barkley is an absolute beast, but the offense is going to have to rely on Danny Dimes if they fall behind here. Don’t get too cute, folks. This team is flawed.

Meanwhile, the Cowboys boast a top five defense and are the healthiest they’ve been all season. They crushed the Vikings, 40-3, last Sunday and are going to disrupt the Giants dink and dunk offense all day. I’d be shocked if Daniel Jones gets out of here with more than 40 yards rushing and no interceptions, 

I’m not one to advocate laying ten points, but there is no denying that the Giants are overmatched in this game. Go with the favorite.