NFL OFFENSIVE ROOKIE OF THE YEAR FUTURES: BEST ODDS AND PICKS – AUGUST 2024
NFL OFFENSIVE ROOKIE OF THE YEAR FUTURES BEST ODDS AND PICKS — AUGUST 2024 — Greetings, football fans. The 2024 NFL season is right around the corner, and the preseason slate has already begun. Simply put, opening weekend will be here before we know it. With that in mind, it is a suitable time to see which first-year players have the best odds to win the Offensive Rookie of the Year award.
Last season, Houston Texans rookie quarterback C.J. won the hardware en route to leading the team to its first postseason appearance in four years. So, without further delay, let’s see who sits atop the leaderboard heading into the 2024-25 campaign.
Odds courtesy of DraftKings
Top NFL Offensive ROTY Odds: Caleb Willams (+135)
For the second straight season, the Bears had the top overall pick in the NFL Draft. A year ago, they traded the No. 1 pick to the Carolina Panthers for a package that landed them DJ Moore. This season, they selected Caleb Williams from USC.
In 2022-23, Williams set a USC school record for the most passing yards in a season (4,537) en route to winning the Heisman award. Last season, Willams compiled 3,633 yards, 30 touchdowns, and just five interceptions.
To bolster their receiving corps, the Bears also signed Keenan Allen and selected Rome Odunze from Washington State with the No. 9 pick. These additions—solid as they may be—have some people thinking the Bears could make it to the Super Bowl.
Wait. What?
While I highly respect Mr Wright’s body of work as an analyst, I have to question his sanity level right now.
For starters, the Bears have produced a .294 winning percentage over the past two seasons. Let’s not forget about the teams that battled it out in the conference championship game. Are we ready to say that Chicago is suddenly better than the San Franciso 49ers or the Detroit Lions?
Let us also remember that the Eagles are just one year removed from playing in the Super Bowl. The point I’m trying to make is that the Bears have gotten better, at least on paper. That fact is not debatable. However, it is wise to pump the brakes on any Super Bowl appearance predictions until we get a look at the product on the field.
Second-Best NFL Offensive ROTY Odds: Jayden Daniels (+550)
Following a wild-card loss postseason loss in 2020-21, the Commanders have missed the playoffs in each of the last three seasons. Additionally, they have finished last in the division twice during that stretch.
So, coming off a season in which they won just four games, Washington selected LSU quarterback Jayden Daniels at the No. 2 spot in this year’s draft. In his final collegiate campaign, Daniels finished with 3,812 yards, 40 touchdowns, and four picks. He is also the first quarterback in FBS history to throw for 12,000 yards and rush for over 3,000 yards.
Heralded as one of the most mobile quarterbacks in the draft, it will be interesting to see if he can thrive behind an offensive line that allowed 65 sacks last season.
3. Marvin Harrison Jr. (+650)
The Arizona Cardinals have won four games in each of their last two seasons. Ironically, their 4-13 record in 2023 earned them the fourth overall pick in the draft. With that selection, they took Marvin Harrison Jr. from Ohio State University.
After a freshman campaign in which he tallied 11 catches for just 139 yards, Harrison’s stock rose dramatically over his next two seasons at OSU. During that two-year stretch, he averaged 72 catches and produced back-to-back 1,200-yard seasons, along with a total of 29 touchdowns.
Whether he can leapfrog the guys ahead of him in this conversation is debatable. However, Harrison does give the Cardinals a true No. 1 receiver, who will be a valuable addition to an offense that averaged just 189.4 passing yards per outing last season.
4. Malik Nabers (+1400)
The New York Giants had one of the worst offenses in the league in 2023-24. They finished 29th in total offense (280 yards per outing). Furthermore, New York placed 31st in passing yards per game (169.8). Only the Carolina Panthers were worse in this category.
Lacking an aerial game, the Giants selected LSU receiver Malik Nabers with the sixth pick in the draft. Nabers finished his junior season with 89 grabs, totaling 1,596 yards and 14 touchdowns. Not only that, but Nabers also led the nation in receiving yards per game (120.7). With Saquon Barkley’s departure to the division rival Philadelphia Eagles, the Giants are committed to Daniel Jones being under the center.
Given that sentiment, Nabers – who was considered the second-best receiver on the board behind Harrison – should bolster a Giants’ passing attack that finished near the bottom of the league last season.
5. Bo Nix (+1600)
Six quarterbacks were selected within the first 12 selections of the NFL Draft. As you know, the Denver Broncos selected Bo Nix with the No. 12 overall pick. As is the case with the other quarterbacks on the list, Nix put up solid numbers during his final collegiate season.
He threw for 4,508 yards while leading the FBS in total touchdowns (45 passing and six rushing) in 2023-24. Nix also completed 77.4 percent of his passing, which was an NCAA single-season record. And the fact that he threw just three interceptions says a lot about his decision-making skills on the field. Broncos head coach Sean Payton compared the rookie quarterback to Drew Brees, who he coached for 14 seasons in New Orleans.
“He doesn’t take a lot of sacks. I think he knows when the play is over — time to go. Then, I think he can make plays when he’s going,” Payton said of Nix. “I used to say this all the time, ‘The sack numbers are a reflection more on the quarterback than the offensive line.’ Brees was one of those guys. He was a tough sack. The ball came out. I think Bo has traits like that.”
Despite being compared to a future Hall of Fame quarterback, Payton has yet to name his Week 1 starter. With that in mind, Nix’s competition with two other quarterbacks could hinder his chances of being considered for the Offensive Rookie of the Year award.
