NFL MVP FUTURES: BEST ODDS AND PICKS – JULY 2024

NFL MVP FUTURES BEST ODDS AND PICKS —  JULY 2024 — Greetings, football fans. The 2024 NFL season is right around the corner as the preseason slate begins next week. In other words, opening weekend will be here before we know it. With that in mind, it is a good time to see which players have the best odds to win the league MVP award.

Lamar Jackson won the award last season, with Dak Prescott, Christian McCaffrey, Brock Purdy, and Josh Allen rounding out the top five. Are the same players leading the field in this category once again?

Let’s take a look and find out.

Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of July 26, 2024

Best NFL MVP Odds: Patrick Mahomes (+475)

In 2023, Patrick Mahomes finished with 4,183 passing yards, along with 27 touchdowns and 14 interceptions. The passing total was his lowest since 2019 when he threw for 4,031 yards. Additionally, the 14 picks total was a career-worse for the two-time MVP winner.

On the other side of the narrative, Mahomes and the Chiefs came alive during the postseason. As many of us recall, the Chiefs went on to win it all for the second straight season despite being underdogs in three of their four playoff games.

During that four-game stretch, Mahomes threw for 1,051 yards and six touchdowns while completing 69.8 percent of his passing attempts. Even more importantly, he had just one pick. Will Mahomes take home his third MVP trophy? Maybe. But he and the Chiefs are eyeing becoming the first team in league history to win three straight titles, more so than any regular-season award.

Second-Best NFL MVP Odds: C.J. Stroud (+850)

After posting a 9-6 record during his first NFL season, second-year quarterback C.J. Stroud comes in at the No. 2 spot, which is somewhat surprising. However, Stroud did produce a solid rookie campaign in 2023-24. He finished eighth in passing yards with 4,108, along with 23 touchdowns and just five interceptions. Additionally, he guided the Texans to their first playoff win since 2019.

In his playoff debut, he was lights out, completing 16 of 21 passes for 274 yards and three touchdowns. Unfortunately, the feel-good story ended there, as Stroud and the Texans came up short against the Baltimore Ravens in the divisional round, losing that game by a 34-10 margin. He was just 19 of 33, totaling 175 yards in that matchup.

Despite the disappointing end to the season, the 2024-25 campaign looks bright for the second-year quarterback, thanks to a receiving corps that includes Stefon Diggs, Tank Dell, Nico Collins, Dalton Schultz, Joe Mixon, and Robert Woods.

Following a season in which he won the Offensive Rookie of the Year and became the youngest starting quarterback to win a playoff game, can Stroud duplicate his success, or will opposing defenses be able to develop a game plan to slow him down in Year 2?

3. Josh Allen (+900)

Ironically, Buffalo Bills quarterback Josh Allen was the odds-on favorite to win the MVP award prior to the start of last season. With that in mind, it is easy to understand his inclusion in the top five players to win it this year.

Allen threw for 4,306 yards, 29 touchdowns, and 18 interceptions last season. The good news is he finished fourth in the league in passing yards and it marked the fourth straight season in which he threw for over 4,200 yards. On the other side of the spectrum, the 29 touchdowns was his lowest total since 2019. Also, his 18 interceptions was the second-highest total in the NFL.

To put this statistic into proper perspective, only Sam Howell of the Washington Commanders tallied more picks than Allen. He finished the 2023-24 campaign with 21 interceptions. Allen helped guide the Bills to an AFC East crown but needed a five-game winning streak at the end of the season to accomplish this feat.

What Bills fans will remember most is the 27-24 playoff loss to the Chiefs. Although Kansas City had knocked Buffalo out of the playoffs twice — in the 2020 AFC championship game and in the divisional round in 2021 — this contest marked the first time the postseason matchup would take place on the Bills’ home turf.

It was a nip-and-tuck battle in which the lead changed hands five times. The Bills’ last drive stalled on the Chiefs’ 26-yard line as Allen threw two incompletions. Can the guy who was the early odds-on favorite last season put it together in 2024, or will turnovers continue to be an issue?

4. Joe Burrow (+900)

Joe Burrow finished fourth in the MVP voting in 2022. Unfortunately, injuries hindered his 2023-24 campaign. First, he suffered a calf injury, which limited his mobility. Then, he suffered a wrist injury in Week 11 that sidelined him for the remainder of the season.

In a 10-game sample size, Burrow finished with 2,309 passing yards, 15 touchdowns, and six interceptions, with a 66.8 completion percentage. With a full offseason to rehab his injuries, Burrow should be good to go this season. And with a career 3-1 record against the Chiefs, he and the Bengals could be the biggest threat to Kansas City’s bid to three-peat.

 5. Jordan Love (+1400)

First-year starter Jordan Love rounds out the top five of MVP candidates from a betting perspective. After a combined 10 starts in 2021 and 2022, Love finally got his chance to play under center following Aaron Rodgers’ departure to the New York Jets. In his first full season as the Packers’ starting quarterback, he put together a solid season.

During the regular season, he finished with 4,159 yards (the seventh-highest total in the NFL), 32 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions. In the wild-card round of the playoffs, he guided Green Bay to a 48-32 win over a Dallas Cowboys squad that had won 16 consecutive games at home.

Additionally, the Packers nearly upset the top-seeded San Francisco 49ers as well before a Christian McCaffrey touchdown with 1:07 remaining helped clinch the win for the home team.

Although the Packers did come up short in the divisional playoff round, it is worth noting that Love compiled 21 touchdowns against just three picks in his last nine games. Yep, that includes the postseason as well. Given what we witnessed during the second half of last season and the playoffs, not only will Love be in the MVP conversation this upcoming season, but he could also become a mainstay on this list for several years to come.