NFL COTY FUTURES: BEST ODDS AND PICKS – JULY 2024
NFL COTY FUTURES BEST ODDS AND PICKS — JULY 2024 — Greetings, football fans. The 2024 NFL season is right around the corner, and the preseason slate begins in a few days. Simply put, opening weekend will be here before we know it. With that in mind, it is a suitable time to see which head coaches have the best odds of winning the Coach of the Year award.
Last season, Kevin Stefanski of the Cleveland Browns and DeMeco Ryans of the Houston Texans finished ahead of the pack by a wide margin. Are these coaches atop the leaderboard going into the 2024-25 campaign?
Let’s take a look and find out.
Odds courtesy of DraftKings
Top NFL COTY Odds: Matt Eberflus (+850)
Chicago Bears head coach Matt Eberflus is the early odds-on favorite to win the COTY award. Even for someone who follows the Bears rather closely, this is surprising. I say this only because Ebeflus has amassed a .294 winning percentage during his first two seasons in the Windy City.
Chicago kicked off the 2023-24 campaign with four straight losses. Coupled with the 10 straight losses to end the previous season, the team dropped 14 games in a row. The good news is the Bears went 7-6 the rest of the way, finishing with a 7-10 record.
Although they were a mediocre squad for the most part, there are a few noteworthy highlights. For starters, Chicago had the second-best rushing attack in the league, with 141.1 yards per contest. On the defensive side of the ball, the Bears held the opposition to just 86.4 rushing yards per outing, which was the best mark in the NFL.
The Bears didn’t have much of an aerial attack last season (182.1 yards per outing). But with the addition of the top overall pick, Caleb Williams, and a receiving corps that includes DJ Moore, Keenan Allen, and rookie Rome Odunze, Chicago is looking to change that trend in 2024.
Second-Best NFL COTY Odds: Jim Harbaugh (+850)
The Los Angeles Chargers hired former NFL and college coach Jim Harbaugh during the offseason. Given his success at every stop, this was a wise decision, to say the least. During Harbaugh’s first stint in the NFL, he reached the NFC title game in each of his first three seasons, including a Super Bowl appearance in 2012 before returning to the collegiate ranks.
Last season, he guided the Michigan Wolverines to a National Championship, thus demonstrating once again his ability to develop a winning culture wherever he goes. The Chargers have missed the playoffs four times in the last five years. Not only that, but they finished last season with a 5-12 record.
The good news is the team has a franchise cornerstone in quarterback Justin Herbert. Additionally, they have a defensive group that includes Joey Bosa, Asante Samuel Jr., and Derwin James.
Although the Chiefs have won eight straight division titles, the Chargers should be in the playoff hunt with Harbaugh roaming the sidelines.
3. Robert Saleh (+1200)
The Jets acquired future Hall of Famer Aaron Rodgers before the start of last season. Unfortunately, his on-field presence was short-lived, as he suffered a season-ending injury on the fourth snap of the team’s season opener against the Buffalo Bills.
New York finished the 2023-24 campaign with a 7-10 mark for the second straight season. Furthermore, this team has missed the playoffs in each of the last 13 years. Although the Jets have been a formidable defensive unit over the past two seasons (ranked fourth in 2022 and third in 2023), they finished 31st in total offense last season, producing just 18 offensive touchdowns across 17 games.
Saleh enters his fourth season with an 18-33 record. According to Sports BetOnline sportsbook, he has the second-highest odds of being the first coach to get fired this season. Given the circumstances, it is safe to say that the Jets must end their playoff drought to give Saleh any chance of retaining the head coaching spot.
4. Matt LaFleur (+900)
Aside from not winning a Super Bowl, life has been rather good for Green Bay Packers fans. The team has four postseason appearances under its belt over the last five seasons. After moving on from Rodgers, Green Bay finished 9-8, earning a wild-card spot in the playoffs.
Despite facing a Dallas Cowboys team that had won 16 straight games at home, the Packers came away with a 48-32 victory, and the final score was not indicative of how one-sided that contest truly was. While their season ended at the hands of the 49ers in the divisional round, Jordan Love flourished in his first full year as the team’s starting quarterback.
He finished with 32 touchdowns and 11 interceptions, including 21 scores and just three picks in his last nine games, including the playoffs. As a result, the two sides recently agreed on a four-year deal worth $220 million, including a record $75 million signing bonus. The $55 million per year average matches Trevor Lawrence and Joe Burrow for the highest in league history.
Love was just one of four quarterbacks to finish in the top 10 in passing TDs (second), passing yards (seventh), and TD-INT ratio (seventh). Even more impressive, he made it to the playoffs in his first season as a starter, something neither Brett Favre nor Aaron Rodgers were able to do in their first seasons as the starter in Green Bay.
Should Love duplicate or exceed his performance from last season, LaFleur would certainly deserve serious consideration for this award.
5. Raheem Morris (+1300)
Raheem Morris rounds out the top five candidates with the best odds to win the COTY award. Morris’ resume includes a stint with the Atlanta Falcons from 2015 to 2020. He held several roles, including defensive backs coach and interim head coach.
Morris was the defensive coordinator for the Los Angeles Rams for the last three seasons 2021-2023). During that stint, Los Angeles notched two postseason berths and captured the title in Super Bowl LVI. Additionally, the Rams’ defense posted the fourth-best red zone efficiency and ranked seventh in rushing yards allowed per contest.
From an offensive standpoint, the Falcons have a talented tailback in Bijan Robinson, who finished with 976 rushing yards and four touchdowns on 4.6 yards per carry. Also, Atlanta finished just outside the top 10 in total defense and ranked eighth in passing yards allowed per outing.
With that in mind, Morris is hoping to guide the team to its first postseason appearance since 2017-18. To some, that goal may sound unrealistic, but here’s the thing: The Bucs won the NFC South Division with a 9-8 record last season. With that in mind, a division title is certainly within reach.
