NFL AFC CHAMPIONSHIP FUTURES: BEST ODDS AND PICKS – AUGUST 2024
NFL AFC CHAMPIONSHIP FUTURES BEST ODDS AND PICKS — AUGUST 2024 — The 2024 NFL season is right around the corner, and the preseason has already begun. Simply put, opening weekend will be here before we know it. With that in mind, it is a suitable time to see which AFC teams have the best odds to represent the conference in the Super Bowl.
Last season, the Baltimore Ravens and the Kansas City Chiefs battled it out in the conference title game. Are these teams atop the leaderboard going into the 2024-25 campaign?
Let’s take a look and find out.
Odds courtesy of DraftKings
TOP AFC Championship Odds: Kansas City Chiefs (+300)
The back-to-back champions finished the 2023-24 campaign with an 11-6 record, two games behind the Ravens in the conference playoff race. The offense struggled at times, and the Chiefs had the dubious honor of leading the NFL in dropped passes with 44.
The narrative was different from a defensive perspective, though. In the regular season, KC finished second in total defense, allowing just 289.8 yards per game. During the postseason, they held the opposition to 15.8 points per contest – the second-lowest average of all the 14 playoff teams.
To close out the Chiefs’ case for representing the AFC once again, it should be mentioned they have won four of the last five conference title games.
Second-Best AFC Championship Odds: Baltimore Ravens (+550)
The Ravens finished with the best record in the league last season (13-4) and made their first conference title appearance in over a decade. They were just as impressive in their postseason contests.
In their two playoff games, the Ravens held the opposition to 266 yards per contest and gave up just 13.5 points per outing. Unfortunately, after finishing sixth in total offense during the regular season and scoring 34 points against the Houston Texans in the divisional round, Baltimore mustered just 10 points in a seven-point loss against the Chiefs in the AFC title game.
Although Lamar Jackson is a formidable dual-threat quarterback, the Ravens hope the addition of Derrick Henry will give the team a balanced attack. Another area of concern is the receiving corps. Zay Flowers finished last season with 77 catches for 858 yards and five touchdowns.
He was only one of two players to surpass 500 receiving yards, with tight end Mark Andrews (45 catches totaling 544 yards) being the other. So, while the aerial game is a work in progress, it does make sense for Baltimore to have the second-best odds, given this squad was in the conference championship game last season.
3. Cincinnati Bengals (+700)
The Bengals failed to reach the playoffs last season following two seasons in which they went to the Super Bowl in 2021-22 and were defeated in the conference title game in 2022-23. Joe Burrow battled a calf injury early on and then sustained a wrist injury in Week 11 that sidelined him for the rest of the season.
As a result, the Bengals finished 9-8, marking the first time they failed to post a double-digit win total since the 2020-21 campaign. Here is an interesting trend about Burrow during his four NFL seasons.
In the two seasons in which he sustained season-ending injuries, Cincinnati missed the playoffs. Conversely, in the other two seasons that he completed, the Bengals upset the Chiefs in the 2021-22 title game and nearly did it again in 2022-23.
That said, if Burrow can stay healthy, it is not out of the realm of possibility for the Bengals to compete for the conference crown.
4. Buffalo Bills (+800)
In 2023-24, the Bills advanced to the playoffs for the fifth straight season and won at least 10 regular-season games for the fifth consecutive year as well. On the other hand, Buffalo has lost in the divisional round of the playoffs in each of the last three seasons.
Last season had to be one of the most painful playoff losses in recent memory. Although the Bills had been defeated by Kansas City multiple times in the postseason, this time around was supposed to be different because the matchup was being played on their home turf.
Despite the different venue, though, it was more of the same. The Chiefs edged Buffalo 27-24 on their way to their sixth straight conference championship appearance. As of right now, I’m not sold on the team making it to the conference title game with a new-look offense (no more Stefon Diggs) and a defense that will look noticeably different without Jordan Poyer and Micah Hyde.
5. Houston Texans (+850)
Prior to last season, the Texans had missed the playoffs three straight years and produced only 11 wins during that three-year stretch. But thanks to an outstanding rookie campaign by C.J. Stroud, Houston ended its playoff drought and won the AFC South crown for the first time since the 2019-20 season.
Houston dismantled the Cleveland Browns in the wild-card round, winning 45-14. Unfortunately, the Texans were upended by the Ravens 34-10 in the divisional round. Make no mistake: Stroud played extremely well last season, throwing for 4,108 yards, 23 touchdowns, and just five picks.
At the same time, although he is on track to take the next step in Year 2, I’m not buying that this team is in the same stratosphere as the Chiefs, Ravens, or even the Bengals when Burrow is healthy.
