NEW YORK LIBERTY VS. MINNESOTA LYNX GAME 5 EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTIONS — October 20, 2024

NEW YORK LIBERTY VS. MINNESOTA LYNX GAME 5 EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTIONS — October 20, 2024 — Greetings, basketball fans. Welcome back to our WNBA coverage here at Godzilla Wins. Game 5 of the 2024 Finals series features the New York Liberty (39-12 SU, 24-26-1 ATS) hosting the Minnesota Lynx (38-14 SU, 33-18-1 ATS).

Here is a look at which squad has the edge going into this matchup and why.

Tipoff

When: Sunday, October 20, 2024 @ 8:00 PM ET

Where: Barclays Center, Brooklyn, NY

TV: ESPN

New York Liberty vs. Minnesota Lynx Odds

Odds courtesy of DraftKings

New York Liberty vs. Minnesota Lynx — Postseason Stats & Betting Trends

The first three games of this WNBA Finals series saw the home team jump out to early double-digit leads. However, that would not be the case in Game 4. Right from the tipoff, the contest was tight throughout the evening. This sentiment is supported by the fact there were 14 lead changes and 13 ties. Not only that but neither ball club led by more than six points.

As was the case in Game 3, the outcome was uncertain until the final sequence. The teams were tied at 80 apiece when Minnesota guard Courtney Williams missed a midrange jumper. Fortunately, Bridget Carleton grabbed the offensive rebound and was fouled on her put-back attempt. With ice flowing through her veins, Carleton calmly knocked down the pair of free throws to give the Lynx a two-point advantage with two seconds left in regulation.

On the game’s final possession, Sabrina Ionescu — who hit an epic long-range shot in Game 3 — missed wide left as the buzzer expired, preserving the two-point win for the home team, sending this series to a winner-take-all Game 5. One of the keys to victory for Minnesota was a balanced scoring attack, as all five starters scored in double figures.

Another significant trend for the Lynx was their defensive effort against Ionescu and Breanna Stewart. Ionescu scored 10 points on 5-for-15 shooting from the floor and 0-for-5 from beyond the arc. Meanwhile, Stewart — who torched the Lynx with a 30-point, 11-rebound effort two nights ago — tallied 11 points and 11 rebounds but shot 5-for-21 from the floor and missed all four of her three-point attempts.

The Liberty have dropped back-to-back games only once this season. Will that trend continue, or will the Lynx secure a league-best fifth title? In a series that has been memorable for all the right reasons, both scenarios have an equal shot at coming to fruition.

Now that we have set the stage for the final game of the 2024 WNBA season, let’s examine the betting trends for both teams.

The Spread

After dropping Game 4, the Liberty opened as a 5.5-point favorite. However, the line has recently moved to six points (per OddsShark.com). Here is a look at how both teams have fared against the spread this season.

• The Liberty are 2-3-2 in their last seven games overall.
• New York is 3-8-1 ATS in its last 12 contests at the Barclays Center.
• In their last five matchups against Minnesota, the Liberty are 1-3-1 against the spread.
• Meanwhile, the Lynx are 19-7 ATS in their last 26 games against teams with a winning record.
• Minnesota has covered the spread five times in its last seven road outings.
• The Lynx are 5-1 ATS in their last six WNBA championship contests, while New York is 1-4 ATS in its previous five WNBA Finals games.

Going with the Lynx to cover the spread during this series has served me well, as I am 3-1 through the first four games. With that in mind, I am picking Minnesota to cover the spread again, and I would not be surprised if they won this game outright, either.

Prediction: Minnesota Lynx (+5.5)

Over/Under

The projected over/under total for this matchup opened at 157 points, but at the time of this writing, the line has dipped to 156.5 points (via OddsShark.com). Here is why going with the “over” is the intelligent choice.

• The total has gone OVER six times in the Liberty’s last nine games.
• The OVER total is 4-1 in New York’s previous five home contests.
• In the Liberty’s previous 21 matchups against Minnesota, the OVER total has prevailed 14 times.
• The total has gone OVER five times in the Lynx’s last seven outings.
• The OVER total has cashed in five times in Minnesota’s previous six road contests.
• In the Lynx’s last 11 “road” matchups against New York,  the OVER total is 8-3.

Prediction: OVER 156.5 points

Player Prop Bet

Despite her struggles in Game 4, two-time MVP Breanna Stewart has a history of returning to form following poor performances. During the regular season, her lowest scoring output was eight points. Two days later, she followed that up with a 31-point, 10-rebound effort. During the postseason, Stewart’s lowest-scoring game thus far was 13 points against the Atlanta Dream in Game 2 of the opening round. That outing was followed by a 34-point outburst in the series opener against the Las Vegas Aces.

With that in mind, Stewart is the key player to watch for the home team. She currently has -120 odds of scoring more than 20.5 points and -110 odds of finishing with less than 20.5 points (via DraftKings.com).

Here is a look at how her numbers stack up against the projected points total for this matchup.

• During the postseason, Stewart is putting up 20.0 points per game.
• Through the first four games of this championship series, Stewart has averaged 20.0 points and 10.0 rebounds per outing on 33.8 percent shooting from the floor and 28.6 percent from beyond the arc.
• The Liberty have played at home six times in the postseason. Stewart is averaging 20.2 points per outing in those contests.
• Over her last three outings, Stewart has averaged 20.7 points, 10.3 rebounds, and 3.3 assists per contest, exceeding the points total for this matchup twice during that stretch.

Prediction: Breanna Stewart OVER 20.5 points