NEW YORK LIBERTY VS. MINNESOTA LYNX GAME 2 EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTIONS — October 13, 2024

NEW YORK LIBERTY VS. MINNESOTA LYNX GAME 2 EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTIONS — October 13, 2024 — Greetings, basketball fans. Welcome back to our WNBA coverage here at Godzilla Wins. Game 2 of the 2024 Finals series features the New York Liberty (37-11 SU, 23-24-1 ATS) hosting the Minnesota Lynx (37-12 SU, 31-17-1 ATS).

Here is a look at which squad has the edge going into this matchup and why.

Tipoff

When: Sunday, October 13, 2024 @ 3:00 PM ET

Where: Barclays Center, Brooklyn, NY

TV: ABC

New York Liberty vs. Minnesota Lynx Odds

Odds courtesy of DraftKings

New York Liberty vs. Minnesota Lynx — Postseason Stats & Betting Trends

The Liberty and the Lynx finished with the top two records in the “W” during the regular season. These squads were also two of the top three defensive teams in the league. That said, it is fitting these franchises are competing for the ultimate prize. Although New York was a 6.5-point favorite in the opener, the outcome was not what most people expected.

The Liberty led by 18 points in the first half and 15 points in the final frame (81-66). However, the Lynx battled back and took an 84-83 advantage courtesy of this crucial four-point play by Courtney Williams.

Breanna Stewart split a pair of free throws to send the contest into an extra session. With the game tied at 93, Napheesa Collier hit a tough turnaround jumper to give the Lynx a two-point advantage with 8.8 seconds left. On the ensuing possession, Stewart missed a layup as the clock expired, allowing the road team to escape with an improbable victory. Jonquel Jones, who was a matchup nightmare for Minnesota, finished with a team-high 24 points and collected 10 rebounds. Stewart added 18 and nine boards but connected on just six of her 21 shot attempts. Sabrina Ionescu finished with 19 points on 8-of-26 shooting from the floor.

Meanwhile, Courtney Williams led the Lynx’s offense with 23 points, five rebounds, and five assists. Kayla McBride scored 22 points, including a 4-for-7 effort from beyond the arc. Napheesa Collier, the league’s Defensive Player of the Year, had a solid performance at both ends of the floor. She finished with 21 points, eight rebounds, six blocks and three steals. With the possibility of facing an 0-2 deficit, look for the Liberty to play with a sense of desperation in Game 2. At the same time, following their come-from-behind win in Game 1, Minnesota has to feel confident about winning not only this game but also the series.

Now that we have set the stage for this matchup, let’s examine the betting trends for both teams.

The Spread

Despite the overtime loss in the series opener, the Liberty opened as a 6.5-point favorite. However, the line has recently moved to 7.5 points (per OddShark.com). Here is a look at how both teams have fared against the spread this season.

• The Liberty are 2-3-1 in their last six games overall.
• New York is 2-8-1 ATS in its last 11 contests at the Barclays Center
• In their five matchups against Minnesota, the Liberty are 1-4 against the spread.
• Meanwhile, the Lynx are 15-7-1 ATS in their last 23 outings overall.
• Minnesota has covered the spread five times in its last six road outings.
• In their previous five “road” matchups against New York, the Lynx are 4-1 against the spread.

I correctly picked Minnesota to cover the 6.5-point spread three nights ago. Following their come-from-behind OT win in Game 1, I am confident they will cover an even slightly larger spread in Game 2.

Prediction: Minnesota Lynx (+7.5)

Over/Under

The projected over/under total for this matchup opened at 162.5 points, but at the time of this writing, the line has risen to 164 points (via OddsShark.com). Here is why going with the “over” is the intelligent choice.

• The total has gone OVER five times in the Liberty’s last six games.
• The OVER total is 4-1 in New York’s previous five home contests.
• The total has gone OVER 11 times in the Lynx’s last 16 matchups against teams with a winning record.
• The OVER total is 5-2 in Minnesota’s previous seven games overall.
• In the previous 17 encounters between these teams, the OVER total has prevailed 12 times.
• The OVER total has cashed in seven times in the previous nine meetings between these ball clubs in New York.

Prediction: OVER 164 points

Player Prop Bet

Following her 24-point, 10-rebound effort in Game 1, Jonquel Jones is the key player to watch for the home team. She currently has +110 odds of scoring more than 14.5 points and -130 odds of finishing with less than 14.5 points (via Bet365.com).

Here is a look at how her numbers stack up against the projected points total for this matchup.

• During the postseason, Jones is putting up 15.0 points per game.
• In four matchups against Minnesota this season (excluding the Commissioner’s Cup), Jones has averaged 14.5 points and 8.3 rebounds per outing.
• The Liberty have played at home five times in the postseason. Jones is averaging 16.0 points per outing in those contests.
• Over her last three outings, Jones has averaged 16.3 points, 7.3 rebounds, and 1.3 assists per contest, exceeding the points total for this matchup only once during that stretch.

Prediction: Jonquel Jones OVER 14.5 points