NEW YORK LIBERTY VS. MINNESOTA LYNX EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTIONS — October 10, 2024

NEW YORK LIBERTY VS. MINNESOTA LYNX EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTIONS — October 10, 2024 — Greetings, basketball fans. Welcome back to our WNBA coverage here at Godzilla Wins. Game 1 of the 2024 Finals series features the New York Liberty (37-10 SU, 23-23-1 ATS) hosting the Minnesota Lynx (36-12 SU, 30-17-1 ATS).

Here is a look at which squad has the edge going into this matchup and why.

Tipoff

When: Thursday, October 10, 2024 @ 8:00 PM ET

Where: Barclays Center, Brooklyn, NY

TV: ESPN

New York Liberty vs. Minnesota Lynx Odds

Odds courtesy of DraftKings

New York Liberty vs. Minnesota Lynx — Postseason Stats & Betting Trends

In last year’s playoffs, the Liberty came up short against the Las Vegas Aces. Fast forward to the present, New York dethroned Las Vegas 3-1 in the semifinal round, earning their second straight trip to the WNBA Finals. In the close-out game against the Aces, Sabrina Ionescu paced the team’s offense with 22 points and seven assists on 7-of-14 shooting from the field. Breanna Stewart did not have a great shooting night (8-for-21 overall and 1-for-4 from 3-point range) but contributed 19 points, 14 boards, and five assists.

Jonquel Jones added 14 points and six rebounds, while Leonie Fiebich had a solid all-around game with 11 points, seven rebounds, and four assists. New York led by a slim two-point margin (53-51) heading into the final frame. However, they turned up the intensity at the defensive end of the floor, outscoring Las Vegas 23-11 in the game’s final 10 minutes. Not only that, but they held the Aces to 32.8 percent shooting from the field and just 7-of-30 from beyond the arc. With the memory of last year’s Finals loss in their minds, the Liberty hope to write a different ending to their season this time around.

Minnesota Lynx Back In The Finals For The First Time Since 2017

Meanwhile, the Lynx were given all they could handle in a five-game semifinal series against the Connecticut Sun. In the series finale, Napheesa Collier led the charge with 27 points, connecting on 10 of 16 shots from the field. The league’s Defensive Player of the Year also tallied 11 rebounds, four assists, and four blocked shots.

Courtney Williams added 24 points and seven assists while knocking down all three of her attempts from three-point range.  Kayla McBride finished with 19 points and four rebounds. Minnesota led by 13 after the opening stanza and pushed the lead to 19 points at the break before holding on for an 11-point victory. Minnesota is back in the Finals for the first time since the team’s last title run in 2017. That was the franchise’s fourth championship during a seven-year stretch. The Lynx took three of the four meetings between these teams this season (including the Commissoner’s Cup contest on June 25). Will that trend continue, or will Liberty claim the franchise’s first-ever championship?

Now that we have set the stage for this matchup, let’s examine the betting trends for both teams.

The Spread

Following their 3-1 series win over the defending champions in the semifinal round, the Liberty opened as a 5.5-point  favorite. However, the line has recently moved to six points (per OddShark.com). Here is a look at how both teams have fared against the spread this season.

• The Liberty are 7-18-1 ATS in their last 26 home games.
• New York is 5-11-1 ATS in its last 17 matchups against Minnesota.
• In their last six outings following a straight-up win, the Liberty are 1-4-1 against the spread.
• Meanwhile, the Lynx are 15-7 ATS in their last 22 outings overall.
• Minnesota has covered the spread five times in its last seven contests against Eastern Conference opponents.
• In the previous 17 meetings between these teams, the Lynx are 11-5-1 against the spread.

Prediction: Minnesota Lynx (+6)

Over/Under

The projected over/under total for this matchup opened at 160.5 points, but the line has moved to 159 points (via OddsShark.com). Here is why going with the “over” is the intelligent choice.

• The total has gone OVER four times in the Liberty’s last five games.
• The OVER total is 4-2 in New York’s previous six home contests at the Barclays Center.
• In the Liberty’s last 17 outings against Minnesota, the OVER total has prevailed 12 times.
• The total has gone OVER five times in the Lynx’s last seven games.
• The OVER total is 4-1 in Minnesota’s last five road contests.
• In the Lynx’s previous nine “road” matchups against New York, the OVER total has cashed in seven times.

Prediction: OVER 159 points

Player Prop Bet

On the heels of her 22-point, seven-rebound performance in the series finale against Las Vegas, Sabrina Ionescu is the key player to watch for the home team. She currently has -110 odds of scoring more than 17.5 points and -120 odds of finishing with less than 17.5 points (via DraftKings.com).

Here is a look at how her numbers stack up against the projected points total for this matchup.

• During the postseason, Ionescu is putting up 20.7 points per game.
• In three regular-season meetings against Minnesota (excluding the Commissioner’s Cup), Ionescu averaged 14.3 points per contest on 29.1 percent shooting overall and 17.9 percent from beyond the arc.
• The Liberty have played four home games in the postseason. Ionescu is averaging 24.5 points per outing in those contests.
• Over her last three outings, Ionescu has averaged 16.3 points, 7.0 rebounds, and 4.0 assists per contest, exceeding the points total for this matchup twice during that stretch.

Prediction: Sabrina Ionescu OVER 17.5 points