New York Liberty vs. Connecticut Sun Expert Pick – October 1, 2023

NEW YORK LIBERTY VS. CONNECTICUT SUN EXPERT PICK – OCTOBER 1, 2023 – Happy Sunday, basketball fans. Welcome back to our WNBA playoffs coverage here at Godzilla Wins.

The only game on the slate for today features the No. 2 seed New York Liberty taking on the No. 3 seed Connecticut Sun in Game 4 of this semifinal series.

Will the Sun extend the series to a fifth game or will the Liberty advance to the WNBA Finals for the first time since 2002? Here is a look at which team has the edge going into this matchup and why.

The Odds

Tipoff

When: Friday, October 1, 2023 at 3:00 PM ET

Where: Mohegan Sun Arena, Uncasville, CT

TV: ABC

Odds courtesy of DraftKings

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New York Liberty vs. Connecticut Sun – Series Recap And Betting Trends

Connecticut dropped all four regular season matchups against New York. However, they managed to earn a road split in the first two games.

Not only that but the Sun’s defense had held its own against the league’s MVP, Breanna Stewart. Through the first two games of the series, Stewart averaged 15.5 points per outing on 26.3 percent shooting from the field and she missed 11 of her 12 attempts from beyond the arc.

In Game 3, though, that trend changed. Stewart was noticeably more aggressive early and often, scoring 12 points in the opening frame. As a result, the Liberty scored 37 points and led by 21 points after the first 12 minutes of action.

When it was all said and done, New York won Game 3 by a 92-81 margin. Stewart finished with 25 points (on 11-for-19 shooting) to go along with 11 rebounds. It was the second straight game in which she posted a double-double. She tallied 11 points and collected 11 rebounds in Game 2.

Stewart could be on track for another noteworthy outing. If that scenario does play out, the Sun will more than likely see their season come to an end on their home court.

The Picks

The Spread

New York opened as a consensus 4.5-point favorite. That line has moved slightly to (-5). Here is why I am going with New York to cover.

• In New York’s two wins in this series, the margin of victory was seven and 11 points.
• The Liberty are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following an ATS win.
• In its last 10 road contests, New York is 7-3 against the spread.

Prediction: New York Liberty (-5)

Over/Under

The projected over/under total for this contest is 160.5 points. Here are a few trends that suggest why going with the over is the smart play.

• Connecticut and New York have eclipsed the projected total in this contest in two of the three games in this series.
• In the Liberty’s last seven games, the OVER total is 6-1.
• The OVER is 5-1 for New York the last six times they have played on one day of rest.
• In New York’s last five games against Eastern Conference teams, the OVER is 4-1.
• The OVER is 5-2 for Connecticut the last seven times they played on one day of rest.
• In Connecticut’s last 20 home games, the OVER is an impressive 14-6.

 Prediction: OVER 160.5 points

Player Prop Bet

My key player to watch in this contest is Breanna Stewart. She currently has -110 odds of scoring more than 23.5 points and -120 odds of scoring less than 23.5 points.

Stewart averaged 23 points per contest during the regular season, which was a career-best. But she has struggled a bit since the postseason began. Before her breakout performance in Game 3, she was averaging 16.8 points per contest while shooting just 36.8 percent from the floor and she converted two of 21 attempts from 3-point range.

To be honest, I am kind of torn with this pick. But now that Stewart has found her footing, I am betting that she will put together another solid outing to help New York close out the series in four games.

Prediction: Breanna Stewart OVER 23.5 points