New York Knicks vs. Milwaukee Bucks Expert Pick – December 5, 2023

NEW YORK KNICKS VS. MILWAUKEE BUCKS EXPERT PICK – DECEMBER 5, 2023 – Greetings basketball fans. Welcome back to our NBA coverage here at Godzilla Wins.

One of the two games on Tuesday night’s slate features the New York Knicks (12-7) going on the road to take on the Milwaukee Bucks (14-6).

Here is a look at which team has the edge going into this Eastern Conference showdown and why.

Tipoff

When: Tuesday, December 5, 2023 at 7:30 PM ET

Where: Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee, WI

TV:TNT, BSWI, and MSG

New York Knicks vs. Milwaukee Bucks Odds

Odds courtesy of DraftKings

New York Knicks vs. Milwaukee Bucks — Regular Season Stats & Betting Trends

New York Knicks Season Stats:

• Offense: 110.9 PPG – 24^th
• Offense Efficiency: 115.8 points per 100 possessions – 11^th
• Defense: 105.5 PPG – 1^st
• Defense Efficiency: 110.1 points per 100 possessions – 4^th

The Knicks were 5-5 through their first 10 games of the season. Following the slow start, New York has proven to be more than a mediocre squad, posting seven wins across their last nine outings. This includes a 119-106 win over the Toronto Raptors.

Jalen Brunson scored a team-high 22 points to go along with eight assists and five rebounds. Julius Randle had an all-around solid game with 20 points, 10 boards, and nine dimes. New York shot 50 percent from the field and 44.9 percent from beyond the arc.

It will be interesting to see how the Knicks’ defense fares against a Milwaukee team that boasts the league’s third-highest scoring average.

Milwaukee Bucks Season Stats:

• Offense: 121.0 PPG – 3^rd
• Offense Efficiency: 118.8 points per 100 possessions – 5^th
• Defense: 118.1 PPG – 24^th
• Defense Efficiency: 115.9 points per 100 possessions – 21^st

Like the Knicks, the Bucks didn’t get off to a great start as they produced five wins in their first nine games. But over the past three weeks, they have been playing some great basketball, posting nine wins in their last 11 outings. This includes a 132-121 win against the Atlanta Hawks on Saturday night.

Giannis Antetokounmpo paced Milwaukee’s scoring attack with 32 points, 11 rebounds, and 10 assists.  This was his first triple-double of the season and his 36th overall. Damian Lillard finished with 25 points and nine assists. Cameron Payne came off the bench to score 18 points in 20 minutes of action.

Next up, here is a look at some noteworthy betting trends for both ball clubs.

The Picks

The Spread

The Milwaukee Bucks opened as a six-point favorite. That line has moved to five. Here are a few trends that suggest why going with the home team to cover is the smart play.

• The Knicks are 2-4 ATS in their last six games overall.
• New York is 1-5-1 ATS in its last seven matchups against Milwaukee.
• The Bucks are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games overall.
• In its last five games played on a Tuesday, Milwaukee is 4-1 against the spread.

Prediction: Milwaukee Bucks (-5)

Over/Under

The projected over/under total opened at 223 points. That line has moved to 228 points. Here are a few trends that suggest why going with the “over” is a wise choice.

• The OVER total has prevailed five times in the Knicks’ last seven contests.
• In New York’s last eight December games, the OVER has hit seven times.
• The OVER total has hit for Milwaukee four times in its last five games.
• In the Bucks’ last six games against Eastern Conference opponents, the OVER cashed in five times.
• The total has gone OVER five times for the Bucks in their last seven matchups against Atlantic Division teams.

Prediction: OVER 228 points

Player Prop Bets

My key player to watch for the Knicks is Jalen Brunson. He currently has -145 odds of scoring 26.5 points and +114 odds of scoring less than 26.5 points.

In 13 career games against the Bucks (including the playoffs) Brunson is averaging 15.6 points per contest, which is well below his projected scoring output for this matchup.  These teams have played each other twice this season. Brunson is averaging 20.5 points per contest in those matchups.

However, Brunson has scored 27-plus points in four of his last eight outings. And he is averaging 28 points per contest during that stretch. Based on his recent body of work, along with the fact that the Bucks are not a great defensive team, I am inclined to lean toward the “over” for Brunson.

Prediction: Jalen Brunson OVER 26.5 points

My key player for the Bucks is Giannis Antetokounmpo. He has -125 odds of scoring more than 29.5 points and -105 odds of scoring less than 29.5 points.

Antetokounmpo has played against the Knicks 52 times in his career.  He is averaging 25 points per outing, which is a few points shy of his projected scoring total for this matchup.

On the season, Giannis is averaging 29.9 points per outing. In his last 10 outings, he has scored at least 26 points six times. Additionally, he is averaging 30.9 points per contest during that 10-game stretch. With these trends in mind, going with the “over” for Antetokounmpo looks like a smart bet.

Prediction: Giannis Antetokounmpo OVER 29.5 points