New York Knicks vs. Milwaukee Bucks Expert Pick – April 7, 2024

NEW YORK KNICKS VS. MILWAUKEE BUCKS EXPERT PICK – APRIL 7, 2024 — Greetings, basketball fans. Welcome back to our NBA coverage here at Godzilla Wins. One of the games on tap from tonight’s slate features the New York Knicks (45-32 SU, 41-35-1 ATS) taking on the Milwaukee Bucks (47-30 SU, 33-44 ATS).

Here is a look at which squad has the edge going into this matchup and why.

Tipoff

When: Sunday, April 7, 2024 @ 7:00 PM ET

Where: Fiserv Forum, Milwaukee, WI

TV: NBA TV, BSWI, and MSG

New York Knicks vs.  Milwaukee Bucks Odds

Odds courtesy of DraftKings

New York Knicks vs.  Milwaukee Bucks – Regular Season Stats & Betting Trends

Can The Knicks Defense Shine Against Struggling Bucks?

 New York Knicks Season Stats:

• Scoring Offense: 112.3 PPG – 21^ST
• Offensive Efficiency: 119.8 points per 100 possessions – 8^TH
• Scoring Defense: 107.9 PPG – 2^ND                     
• Defensive Efficiency: 115.2 points per 100 possessions – 9^TH

The Knicks have gone 5-5 over their last 10 outings and are in the No. 5 spot in the conference playoff race. In the team’s recent outing, they lost to the Chicago Bulls 108-100 on Friday night.

In that contest, four Knicks starters reached double figures, headlined by Jalen Brunson’s team-high 35 points. He shot 13-for-28 from the floor, handed out 11 assists, and pulled down six rebounds.

Unfortunately, Brunson’s solid outing was not enough to prevent New York from losing to a Chicago Bulls team that has been inconsistent at best this season.

“Our rebounding wasn’t good enough, we were slow to the ball — that was probably the difference in the game,” Knicks coach Tom Thibodeau said, via CBS Sports. “Our margin of error is very tight right now, so we have to be able to get past any distractions.”

Owning the second-best scoring defense in the association, the Knicks will need to be elite at that end of the floor against a Bucks team that is ranked third in scoring.

Can The Bucks Snap Their Three-Game Losing Skid?

 Milwaukee Bucks Season Stats:

• Scoring Offense: 119.9 PPG – 3^RD
• Offensive Efficiency: 120.5 points per 100 possessions – 6^TH        
• Scoring Defense: 116.8 PPG – 22^ND
• Defensive Efficiency: 117.3 points per 100 possessions – 17^TH

The Bucks have been holding steady at the No. 2 spot in the standings for the past several weeks. However, their lead over the third-place Cleveland Cavaliers is just 1.5 games. Not only have the Bucks dropped six of their last 10 decisions but they also enter this matchup amid a three-game losing streak — all against teams that are well out of playoff contention.

In their 117-111 loss to the Toronto Raptors on Friday night, Damian Lillard paced the Bucks’ offense with 36 points and six assists. But he struggled from the floor, shooting 10-for-24 overall and just 4-for-12 from distance.

The Raptors handed the Bucks their fifth loss in six contests while snapping their own 15-game losing skid in the process. Additionally, Milwaukee is now 15-16 since replacing Adrian Griffin with Doc Rivers back in late January.

Now that we have set the table for this Eastern Conference showdown, let’s look at the betting trends for both sides.

The Spread

The Bucks opened as a consensus 2.5-point favorite. However, the line has moved to four points for the home team (per Pre-Game.com).  Here is a look at how both ball clubs have fared against the spread this season.

• The Knicks are 2-7-1 ATS in their last 10 matchups against Milwaukee.
• In its last six Sunday road games, New York is 5-1 against the spread.
• The Bucks are 1-5 ATS in their last six outings.
• Milwaukee is 1-4 ATS in its last five home games.
• In their last 12 outings against Atlantic Division teams, the Bucks are 9-3 against the spread.

Neither team has played extremely well against the spread this season. But given the Bucks’ recent struggles, going with the Knicks to cover looks like the smart play here.

Prediction: New York Knicks (+4)

Over/Under

The projected over/under total for this matchup opened at 219.5 points (per OddShark). At the time of this writing, the line has moved up to 220 points (via DraftKings). Here is why going with the “over” is the smart choice.

• The total has gone OVER six times in the Knicks’ last seven outings.
• The OVER total is 5-1 in New York’s last six road games.
• The total has gone OVER four times in the Bucks’ last five matchups against Eastern Conference opponents.
• These teams average a combined total of 232.2 points per game, which is 12.2 points higher than the 220 over/under total.
• The Knicks and Bucks’ opponents are averaging 4.7 points more per contest than the over/under total for this matchup.

Prediction: OVER 220 points

Player Prop Bet

Following a 36-point effort against Chicago, the key player to watch in this matchup is Jalen Brunson. He currently has -105 odds of scoring more than 30.5 points and -125 odds of finishing with less than 30.5 points.

Here’s a quick glance to see how his numbers stack up against the projected points total for this matchup.

• In 13 career games against the Bucks, he is averaging 22.1 points per contest.
• On the season, Brunson is averaging 28 points across 72 outings.
• In 37 road contests, he is averaging 28.5 PPG.
• Brunson has played against Eastern Conference teams 45 times this season. In those contests, he is averaging 25.7 points per outing.
• In 15 matchups against Atlantic Division opponents, he is averaging 23.8 points per game.
• Over his last 10 outings, Brunson has averaged 31.2 points per contest, exceeding the points total for this matchup four times during that stretch.

Prediction: Jalen Brunson UNDER 30.5 points