NEW ORLEANS SAINTS AT GREEN BAY PACKERS EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTIONS — December 23, 2024

NEW ORLEANS SAINTS AT GREEN BAY PACKERS EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTIONS — December 23, 2024 — Greetings, football fans. Welcome back to our NFL coverage here at Godzilla Wins. Our Monday night game features the New Orleans Saints (5-9 SU, 6-8 ATS) visiting the Green Bay Packers (10-4 SU, 8-6 ATS).

Here is a look at which squad has the edge going into this matchup and why.

Kickoff

When: Monday, December 23, 2024 @ 8:15 PM ET

Where: Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI

TV: ESPN

New Orleans Saints at Green Bay Packers Odds

Odds courtesy of DraftKings

New Orleans Saints at Green Bay Packers — In-Season Stats & Betting Trends

Following a 2-2 start, the Packers have posted eight wins across their last 10 games. This includes a 30-13 victory over the Seattle Seahawks in Week 15. Jordan Love finished 20 of 27 for 229 yards and two touchdowns. Josh Jacobs ran for 94 yards on 26 carries and one touchdown. The Packers’ defense turned in a solid performance. This group held Seattle to 4 for 13 on third down. On top of that, they generated seven sacks and recorded two interceptions. Given those stats,  New Orleans could have its hands full against an opponent ranked sixth in sacks  (40) and fourth in interceptions (14).

Meanwhile, the Saints have struggled after a 2-0 start, going 3-9 in their last 12 games, including a 20-19  setback against the Washington Commanders last week. After being blanked in the first half and trailing by 17 points in the third quarter, New Orleans didn’t roll over in this one. They trimmed what was a 17-0 deficit to 20-13. Then, backup rookie quarterback Spencer Rattler threw a one-yard touchdown pass to Foster Moreau as the game clock expired.

Unfortunately, New Orleans’ two-point conversion attempt was unsuccessful, allowing Washington to hold on for the one-point victory. The Saints are 0-4 without starting quarterback Derek Carr under center (concussion, non-throwing hand injury).

Now that we have set the stage for this NFC showdown, let’s examine the betting trends for both teams.

Hey, make sure you check out our picks on the GW Daily Picks page.

Saints at Packers Spread Analysis

With four wins in their last five outings, the Packers enter this contest as a whopping 14-point favorite (per OddsShark.com). Here’s a look at how the teams have performed against the spread.

• The Packers are 4-1 ATS in their last five games.
• Green Bay has covered the spread five times in its previous seven matchups against NFC opponents.
• In their last nine outings against NFC South teams, the Packers are just 3-6 against the spread.
• The Saints are 3-7 ATS in their previous 10 outings.
• New Orleans boasts a 6-3 mark against the spread in their last nine matchups against the Packers.
• In their previous five road contests, the Saints are 1-4 against the spread.

Prediction: Green Bay Packers (-14)

Saints at Packers Over/Under Prediction

The projected scoring total for this matchup opened at 42 points, but the line recently moved to 43 (via OddsShark.com). Here are a few trends that suggest why going with the “under” is the smart move.

• The total has gone UNDER four times in the Packers’ last five games.
• The UNDER total has hit five times in Green Bay’s previous seven Monday night outings.
• The total has gone UNDER four times in the Saints’ last five games.
• The UNDER total is 13-2 in New Orleans’ previous 15 December contests.

Prediction: UNDER 43 points

Saints at Packers Player Prop Bet

Fresh off a performance in which he completed 74 percent of his passes, Jordan Love is the key player to watch for the home team in this matchup. He currently has -110 odds of exceeding 231.5 passing yards and -110 odds of finishing with less than 231.5 yards (via Bet365). Let’s see how his numbers stack up against the projected yards total.

• During the season, Love is averaging 247.6 yards per game.
• Love has suited up in six home games this season. In those contests, he averages 262.8 yards per outing.
• In eight matchups against NFC teams this season, Love is averaging 254.3 yards per game.
• Love has averaged 226.6 yards per outing across his last five starts, exceeding the projected yards total for this matchup twice during that stretch.

Prediction: Jordan Love OVER 231.5 passing yards