NEW ORLEANS PELICANS VS. DENVER NUGGETS EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTIONS — December 22, 2024

NEW ORLEANS PELICANS VS. DENVER NUGGETS EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTIONS — December 22, 2024 — Greetings, basketball fans. Welcome back to our NBA coverage here at Godzilla Wins. One of the games on tap from today’s slate features the New Orleans Pelicans (5-24 SU, 10-19 ATS) hosting the Denver Nuggets (14-11 SU, 10-14-1 ATS).

Here is a look at which squad has the edge going into this matchup and why.

Tipoff

When: Sunday, December 22, 2024 @ 7:00 PM ET

Where: Smoothie King Center New Orleans, LA

TV: Gulf Coast Sports and ALT2

New Orleans Pelicans vs. Denver Nuggets Warriors Odds

Odds courtesy of DraftKings

New Orleans Pelicans vs. Denver Nuggets — Regular Season Stats & Betting Trends

Pelicans Hope To End Six-Game Slide

With their top two scorers out of the rotation — Zion Williamson and Brandon Ingram — the Pelicans are having a season they would rather forget, going 5-24 in their first 29 games. And they enter this matchup amid a six-game losing streak, including a 104-93 loss against the New York Knicks last night. Trey Murphy III was one of the few bright spots for New Orleans. He scored a team-high 26 points with six rebounds and two blocks.

Dejounte Murray and CJ McCollum added 14 and 13 points, respectively, but shot a combined 10-for-28 from the floor and 2-for-10 from beyond the arc. New Orleans led 49-45 at the break and held a 65-52 lead at the midway point of the third quarter. However, the Knicks responded with a 43-14 outburst over the next 10:48 to take a 95-81 lead en route to a double-digit victory.

From an offensive standpoint, New Orleans is ranked near the bottom of the league. Furthermore, they enter this conference tilt ranked 24th in scoring defense (116.7 PPG) and 28th in defensive rating (118.9 Points Per 100 Possessions). With that in mind, their losing skid will more than likely continue.

Nuggets Looking To Bounce Back From Surprising Loss To Trail Blazers

Meanwhile, the Nuggets have had an up-and-down season thus far. After a 7-3 start, this ball club has gone 7-8 over its previous 15 outings. Denver’s recent three-game winning streak ended with a 126-124 loss to the Portland Trail Blazers on Thursday night. Nikola Jokic led a trio of starters that reached double figures. He finished with 34 points on 13-for-18 shooting from the floor and an efficient 4-for-6 effort from 3-point range. He also tallied six rebounds and eight assists.

Jamal Murray also had a solid game, chipping in with 24 points, 10 assists, and three steals, while Russell Westbrook added 19 points and seven assists off the bench. Denver trailed 104-87 entering the final frame, but Jokic’s layup tied the game at 124 with 16.8 seconds left. On the game’s final possession, though, Anfernee Simons hit the game-winning layup as time expired, giving the home team a two-point victory.

The Pelicans defeated the Nuggets 101-94 when these teams played back in November, and they have split their last four games against Denver. Can the Pels end their six-game slide, or will the Nuggets get back into the win column after coming up short against Portland? Now that we have set the stage for the Western Conference showdown, let’s examine the betting trends for both teams.

Pelicans vs. Nuggets Spread Analysis

The Pelicans opened as a 7.5-point underdog, but the line has moved to 9.5 points (per OddsShark.com). Here is a look at how both teams have fared against the spread this season.

• The Pelicans are 3-6 ATS in their last nine games.
• New Orleans has covered the spread just once in its previous nine matchups against Northwest Division opponents.
• The Nuggets are 1-4 ATS in their last five contests when they were installed as the favorite.
• Denver is 2-2 against the spread as a 9.5-point favorite or more this season.

Prediction: Denver Nuggets (-9.5)

Pelicans vs. Nuggets Over/Under Prediction

The projected scoring total for this matchup is 232 points (via OddsShark.com). Here is why going with the “under” is the intelligent choice.

• The total has gone UNDER eight times in the Pelicans’ last 12 Sunday games.
• The UNDER total is 5-0 in New Orleans’ previous five home matchups against Denver.
• The total has gone UNDER 12 times in the last 17 games between these two teams.
• New Orleans and Denver average a combined 224.3 points per outing, which is 7.7 fewer than the over/under total for this matchup.

Prediction: UNDER 232 points

Pelicans vs. Nuggets Player Prop Bet

On the heels of his 26-point, six-rebound effort against New York, Trey Murphy III is the key player to watch for the home team in this contest. He currently has -120 odds of scoring more than 18.5 points and -110 odds of finishing with less than 18.5 points (via DraftKings.com).

Here is a look at how his numbers stack up against the projected points total for this matchup.

• During the season, Murphy is averaging 19.2 points per game.
• In the previous meeting between these teams, Murphy scored 17 points, grabbed eight rebounds, and had three assists on 7-for-15 shooting.
• Murphy has suited up in seven home games this season. In those contests, he averages 19.3 points per contest.
• Across his last five starts, Murphy has put up 23.2 points per game, exceeding the points total for this matchup four times during that stretch.

Prediction: Trey Murphy III OVER 18.5 points