Nebraska vs. Ohio State Expert Pick and Prediction – February 29, 2024 

NEBRASKA VS. OHIO STATE EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – February 29, 2024 — This isn’t the situation Nebraska wanted to have with its schedule. The Cornhuskers are in full protect mode, as they’ve currently done enough to make the field if the season ended today. If their schedule left them with remaining games with Purdue, Illinois and Michigan State, Fred Hoiberg’s team would have zero doubt of hearing its name called on Selection Sunday.

But the Huskers don’t have that. They finish with Ohio State, Rutgers and Michigan. That’s great for their goal of getting a top-four seed in the Big Ten tournament, but these three games aren’t very helpful for their ultimate goal of qualifying for the NCAA tournament. Rutgers and Michigan in particular are pure land mines: a win offers no help, but a loss does plenty of damage.

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The good news for Nebraska is that Ohio State has gotten off the canvas enough that it’s no longer a land mine. That’s also the bad news. The Buckeyes did so much damage under Chris Holtmann that they’ve got no hope of making the NCAA tournament without winning five games in Minneapolis. But the Buckeyes are playing hard for interim coach Jake Diebler, having upset Purdue in Columbus and beaten Michigan State in East Lansing.

In short, this is Nebraska’s last chance to solidify its spot in the field. If the Huskers can win here and avoid the last two land mines, they’ll arrive in Minneapolis knowing they’re safe. If not, they’ll have work to do at the Big Ten tournament.

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The Odds 

Tipoff 

When: Thursday, February 29 at 6:30 p.m. EST

Where: Value City Arena, Columbus, Ohio

TV: FS1

Public Bets: 92% on Ohio State

Public Money: 97% on Ohio State

Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of February 28th, 2024 

Nebraska vs. Ohio State In-Season Trends

The sportsbooks have gotten wise to Nebraska. The Huskers had been racking up overs like nobody’s business until the books figured out that they can shoot the ball pretty well. Nebraska also stepped up its defense, and the result is that three of its past four games have stayed under the total.

But there’s a caveat: All of those unders came in Lincoln. While the Huskers have figured out how to win on the road after beating Indiana, they haven’t figured out how to bring the defense. Nebraska has played eight road games in the Big Ten and has played to the OVER seven times.

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The lone exception was Maryland, and that happened because Nebraska shot 40% and scored just 51 points. For the year, Nebraska hasn’t given up less than 70 in a Big Ten road game.

Since Diebler took over, Ohio State has gone under when it’s won and over when it hasn’t. The Buckeyes clamped down on both Purdue and Michigan State, cashing as underdogs with straight-up wins. They barely offered any resistance to Minnesota, which put up 88 and cashed the over.

The Difference-Makers 

Beating Nebraska means finding a way to stop Keisei Tominaga, also known as the Japanese Steph Curry. The Huskers do have other shooters, as evidenced by wins over Wisconsin and Minnesota where Tominaga didn’t sink a 3-pointer, but Nebraska’s a lot better when he’s scoring. During the Huskers’ four-game win streak, Tominaga has scored at least 17 points on three occasions, and Nebraska won all of them by at least 15 points.

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Jameson Battle came up big in the Buckeyes’ win over Purdue, scoring 19 points and keeping a post presence despite the matchup. Nebraska is far more guard-oriented, but still takes advantage of its second chances. The Buckeyes have to make sure the Huskers don’t turn missed 3-pointers into putbacks.

The Pick 

As well as Ohio State is playing right now, Nebraska is playing better and has more at stake. The Husker defense matches up well with the Buckeyes, and Nebraska’s shooters should take full advantage of Ohio State’s weakness on the perimeter.

As long as Nebraska’s turnover issues and road woes don’t come into play, the Huskers have the advantage. With this now representing a Quad 1 opportunity, I don’t see the Huskers squandering this game.