NCAA Baseball Tournament – Tallahassee Regional

NCAA BASEBALL TOURNAMENT – TALLAHASSEE REGIONAL — After missing out on the NCAA Tournament last season, the Florida State Seminoles are back in the field. They’re the No. 8 overall seed, and they bring one of the best slugging percentages in the nation to the field.

That’s an ideal setup to a regional that includes Alabama, given that the Crimson Tide gave up more home runs than anyone else in the SEC. With the Seminoles’ stadium also recently damaged by powerful winds, the right field fence is even easier to shoot for than usual. That sets up beautifully for the likes of James Tibbs III and Marco Dinges, who were already among the top power hitters in the ACC.

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This Florida-heavy regional has plenty of depth, as UCF and Stetson also bring talented lineups to Tallahassee. The Knights mostly win with pitching and defense, and they boast the Big 12’s best reliever. Meanwhile, the Hatters won 40 games in the Atlantic Sun and own a win over the Seminoles in a mid-week game. In short, anyone could win this regional.

Players to Watch

The combination of third baseman Cam Smith and right fielder James Tibbs III devastates Florida State opponents. Smith’s .397 average ranked third in the ACC, and Tibbs led the ACC with 25 home runs and 84 RBIs. Tibbs did most of his damage before the storms devastated Dick Howser Stadium, and now has a much shorter right field fence to deal with.

Dominic Castellano’s 2.73 ERA led the Big 12 in relief, making the Knights dangerous if they get a lead. The same holds for Stetson and Zane Coppersmith, who posted a 1.55 ERA in 29 innings of work. Gage Miller leads the Alabama lineup with a .385 batting average, but the Crimson Tide didn’t give him enough help in the regular season. Other than TJ McCants, Alabama doesn’t steal many bases, which makes it difficult to see the Tide scoring with the more powerful offenses in the region.

The Favorite

Florida State dominated in-state competition this season, only losing once to a Florida-based team all year. The Seminoles have to be considered the favorites as long as the rotation doesn’t let down. Outside of ace Jamie Arnold, pitching is more of an adventure for Florida State. Arnold’s 2.45 ERA and 134 strikeouts make him a threat to any opponent, but the rest of the rotation isn’t very consistent.

The Seminoles’ chances will come down to whether Carson Dorsey and Conner Whittaker can get the game to the bullpen. Once Florida State gets to its late-inning guys, it has the edge. But it has to get there first.

Potential Surprise

Don’t be surprised to see UCF make life difficult for Florida State. Castellano is a top-end reliever, but the Knights also have a pair of strong starters in Dom Stagliano and Ben Vespi. Much of what decides a regional is the second and third pitcher, especially if a favorite loses a game early. If the Knights can get by Alabama in the first game, they’ll be better equipped to face the Seminoles in the second game.

There’s an argument for Florida State throwing a bullpen game Friday and saving Arnold for the Alabama-UCF winner. But Link Jarrett probably won’t try that; Stetson is good enough to win if Florida State overlooks the Hatters. And that means FSU will have to outhit UCF to get through this.

The big plus for the Seminoles is that neither Alabama nor UCF is loaded with home run hitters. That should help push Florida State to the super regionals, which it would host. If you’re making a play on this region, the Seminoles should be the pick.