NCAA Baseball Tournament – Lexington Regional

NCAA BASEBALL TOURNAMENT – LEXINGTON REGIONAL — Apparently, the No. 3 overall seed was the sweet spot this year. While Texas A&M got a dream draw at No. 3, Kentucky’s going to have to earn its way through at No. 2.

Instead of landing a middling No. 2 seed, the Wildcats drew Indiana State, which some people had as a potential host. The committee follows geography whenever possible in baseball, and it’s obviously easy to get from Terre Haute to Lexington. But Kentucky deserved a much more manageable No. 2 seed, not a team that made the super regionals last year.

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Illinois and Western Michigan aren’t pushovers either. The Big Ten’s not a baseball conference, but the Illini still won seven of their eight league series. Western Michigan outscored its league foes 29-3 in the MAC tournament to claim its spot in the field. Either one of them could cause problems for the favorites.

Players to Watch

How will Indiana State use Jared Spencer? The left-hander wasn’t supposed to be the Sycamores’ ace, but developed into the Friday night starter by early April. However, this is a rare situation where Indiana State accidentally used its ace against its first regional opponent.

The Sycamores didn’t count on Spencer becoming their best pitcher and threw him against Illinois in March. Now they’ve got a decision to make: do they stick with the rotation they’ve had since April, or throw an unfamiliar pitcher to the Illini and save Spencer for Kentucky? Indiana State has the flexibility to make that choice because Brennyn Cutts and Luke Hayden are both strong options, but it’s still a decision to make.

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Kentucky’s Nick Lopez battered SEC pitching for a .369 average and 20 doubles, earning his cleanup spot. But the Wildcats’ power comes from the Ryans: Ryan Nicholson hit 18 home runs and potential first-rounder Ryan Waldschmidt had 13 while swiping 23 bases.

Western Michigan boasts a couple strong hitters in Cade Sullivan and CJ Richmond, while Illinois needs more from an offense that was catcher Camden Janik and little else.

The Favorite

Kentucky’s hitting and speed has gotten it to this point. The Wildcats are a new baseball power, and they win by taking the extra base and hitting situationally. But the Wildcats’ strength can become their weakness in the wrong matchup: Kentucky is known to run itself out of an inning.

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When the aggression works out, Kentucky can turn a game quickly and pressure opponents. But the Wildcats have a high ceiling and high floor. Kentucky won a series with Arkansas, but got run-ruled by Kennesaw State. Other head-scratchers included a 10-1 loss to Florida and a 9-7 defeat to Samford. There’s a lot of variance for this team.

Potential Surprise

With Indiana State boasting catcher Grant Magill behind the dish, the Sycamores could become a nightmare matchup for the Wildcats. Magill has won Missouri Valley Defensive Player of the Year two years running and threw out 13 would-be base stealers this year. It probably would have been more, but most teams don’t bother to test him. Kentucky will, and how he handles it will decide this regional.

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Illinois’ poor showing at the Big Ten tournament says it’s probably not long for this regional. Ditto for Western Michigan, which will learn the gap between the MAC and the SEC the hard way.

This regional should come down to Kentucky vs. Indiana State. Do I really have the guts to pick the No. 2 seed to go home in the regionals? It hasn’t happened since Stanford in 2018, and I’ve seen the Wildcats at their worst. Indiana State’s a really bad matchup for Kentucky’s style of play, and the Sycamores believe they should have hosted. This can absolutely happen; I’ll gamble on the Sycamores.