NCAA Baseball Tournament – Greenville Regional

NCAA BASEBALL TOURNAMENT – GREENVILLE REGIONAL — One of the best things about the 64-team bracket the NCAA uses for most sports is how it quickly fixes selection committee errors. When a team gets seeded too high or too low, they still get the opportunity to prove their critics right or wrong.

That’s likely the case here in Greenville, where East Carolina isn’t exactly scaring anyone as the No. 16 overall seed. The Pirates had a stronger case than Arizona for a seed, but they really don’t have a stronger case than Wake Forest. And the Demon Deacons are right here, waiting for their shot to show the committee that these games belonged in Winston-Salem.

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Before that matchup, however, Wake has to get by Atlantic 10 champion Virginia Commonwealth and East Carolina meets bid thief Evansville. The Purple Aces would have been nowhere near the field, but they picked off Indiana State in the Missouri Valley and have nothing to lose. VCU’s got a much better chance to make something happen, but the Rams face a potential nightmare first matchup with Wake Forest’s pitching.

Players to Watch

When does Wake Forest throw out national strikeout leader Chase Burns? Burns has fanned 184 hitters and owns an incredible 10-1 record as the Deacons’ Friday starter. Wake Forest coach Tom Walter has called him the best college pitcher he’s ever seen, and Walter was one of the coaches for the legendary duel between Paul Skenes and Rhett Lowder last year in Omaha.

If Burns doesn’t go Friday against VCU, he’ll be used against (likely) East Carolina on Saturday. But is Wake confident enough to either throw Josh Hartle or a bullpen game against the Rams? How Walter handles his rotation will decide the way this plays out.

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Wake also boasts a top-10 pick in home run hitter Nick Kurtz, who led the Deacons with 22 bombs. On this team — the ACC home run leaders — that’s no small feat. Granted, Wake plays in a shoebox with the right field pole 300 feet away, but 117 homers is still impressive. Clark-LeClair Stadium’s deeper down the line, but it’s 10 feet shorter to center field.

That could also help hitters like East Carolina’s Carter Cunningham and VCU doubles machine Brandon Eike. Even Evansville, which boasts .388 hitter Mark Shallenberger, has some hitters who can take advantage.

The Favorite

East Carolina’s got to win this with pitching. Trey Yesavage has also been a whiff machine, striking out 139 and posting an 11-1 mark. Beyond him, the Pirates have a solid No. 2 in Zach Root and an excellent reliever in Danny Beal. Like the Deacons, the Pirates have a decision to make on who they’ll throw in the first game. They should survive Evansville without Yesavage, but it’s a gamble after the Aces upset Indiana State.

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Beyond the pitching, East Carolina is a decent but unspectacular offense. The Pirates have hitters in Cunningham and Bristol Carter, but they are not a power-hitting squad. Against a lineup like Wake Forest, they have to find a way to score.

Potential Surprise

This would be about as mild a surprise as you’ll find, equivalent to a team converting a 4th-and-1 from the opponent’s 35. Wake Forest might even be the favorite in most people’s eyes, and it’s easy to see why. The Deacons have the lion’s share of major league talent. They have great hitting, an ace pitcher and a deep bullpen.

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The worry is the lack of a reliable No. 2 starter, as Hartle is more like a No. 3. However, the ACC is so offense-driven that Wake’s pitching might improve now that it’s away from ACC hitters (and away from Winston-Salem). Wake has the deeper roster and the stronger lineup. That should be enough to get past East Carolina and make it back to the supers.