NCAA Baseball Tournament – Fayetteville Regional
NCAA BASEBALL TOURNAMENT – FAYETTEVILLE REGIONAL — Death, taxes and Arkansas in the super regionals. Up until last year, those were three things you could always count on happening. But the Razorbacks got picked off by TCU last season in their home regional, and the No. 3 seed went home early for the first time since 2017.
Arkansas returns this year with a No. 5 seed and outstanding pitching. The Razorbacks didn’t just lead the SEC in ERA; they led the nation with a 3.66 ERA as a team. They’ve got the best staff and the best overall pitcher in Hagen Smith, making them a favorite to get back to Omaha.
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The Razorbacks’ path couldn’t be much more diverse. They’ll traverse their way through speed-heavy Kansas State, power-laden Southeast Missouri State and balanced Louisiana Tech. The Bulldogs and the Wildcats have the talent to make this a tough out, and while the Redhawks aren’t as deep as the others, they did top 100 home runs this year. Arkansas will have to earn its trip back to the supers.
Players to Watch
If you know what’s good for you, don’t let Brendan Jones get on base. The Kansas State outfielder leads the tournament field with 37 stolen bases on the year and ranks sixth nationally in the category. The Wildcats excel at running and taking the extra base, which isn’t common among power conference squads.
K-State also throws in shortstop Kaelen Culpepper, an all-around player who can hit for power and average and plays outstanding defense. Cole McConnell strikes out too often for Louisiana Tech, but when he connects, he does damage. With a .380 average and 18 home runs, he can make a major impact.
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One of them is going to run into Hagen Smith, the national strikeout and ERA leader. Smith boasts a 1.48 ERA and 184 strikeouts, which is why the Hogs chose to gamble against Southeast Missouri State and use him for the tougher game. As long as Arkansas wins that game, it’s likely to make the regional final.
The Favorite
The Razorbacks do have a weakness, and it’s a lack of power. Arkansas only ranked 12th in the SEC in runs scored, and its 77 home runs won’t scare anyone. The Razorbacks don’t need a lot of runs when Smith and the bullpen get working, but they’ll need to score eventually in this tournament.
Smith can cover up flaws singlehandedly, and Arkansas has the pitching behind him to limit the offense that’s required. As long as that pitching holds up, the Razorbacks will hold the edge.
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But can Arkansas bounce back from its recent struggles? The Razorbacks were two-and-out in the SEC tournament and have lost four of five. That’s not necessarily meaningful in an SEC where everyone but Missouri and Auburn were in the NCAA tournament mix, but it’s a concern. Arkansas will need to use the first game to rebuild momentum.
Potential Surprise
Louisiana Tech has an edge on Kansas State: catcher Jorge Corona. Corona has thrown out 23 base stealers this season, making him one of the more dangerous catchers for a speedy team. The Bulldogs have better balance than the Wildcats, and if Corona can neutralize their speed, K-State’s in trouble.
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Louisiana Tech’s still got the daunting task of trying to best Arkansas pitching, but it’s not a hopeless proposition. The Bulldogs can hit, and if they can pressure the bullpen, they can pull a surprise. I don’t think it’s going to happen, as I believe in the Razorbacks, but a Louisiana Tech win is within the realm of possibility. As long as the Bulldogs don’t drop the opener to Kansas State, they have a chance.
