NCAA Baseball Tournament – College Station Regional

NCAA BASEBALL TOURNAMENT – COLLEGE STATION REGIONAL — When you’re one of the top four seeds in the nation, you deserve to have a few advantages. This might have gone a little too far in Texas A&M’s favor.

Texas is about as inconsistent as a No. 3 seed can get. The Longhorns usually contend for a College World Series, but they’re lucky to have made the field. This Texas team lost seven of its series openers in the Big 12, fell twice to Texas State and has losses to Texas A&M-Corpus Christi and Texas-Rio Grande Valley.

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Louisiana’s a little better, but the Cajuns also haven’t played much of a schedule. They have good numbers, but outside of beating Coastal Carolina, there’s little on the profile. Grambling didn’t beat a Division I opponent all year outside of the SWAC. The Tigers played a pair of SEC opponents in LSU and Arkansas and lost by a combined 47-3. They’re clearly here just to make up the numbers.

A&M isn’t coming in hot, having gone two-and-out at the SEC tournament. But the Aggies went 32-3 this season in College Station, and two of the three losses were to teams that would host super regionals if they qualify (the other is Mississippi State). It’s hard to see these three opponents breaching A&M’s home record.

Players to Watch

The Aggies have plenty of power. Jace LaViolette, Gavin Grahovac and Braden Montgomery all hit at least 20 home runs this season, and A&M hit 124 as a team. That’s a big reason why A&M more than doubled its opponents, outscoring them 500-247.

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There’s a strong argument for saving Ryan Prager for the Louisiana-Texas survivor. He’s the only reliable starter the Aggies have, and Louisiana can win with its pitching. LP Langevin is an ace out of the bullpen with 100 K’s in 60 innings, and the Ragin’ Cajuns get quality starts from Andrew Hermann, Chase Morgan and Carson Fluno.

Jared Thomas does everything well for Texas, stealing 16 bases and hitting 15 homers and 15 doubles to go with a .355 average. But beyond Max Grubbs, the pitching isn’t very consistent for the Longhorns.

The Favorite

Even though Texas A&M lost twice in Hoover, it’s hard to see the Aggies failing here. With how well they’ve played and how inconsistent the competition has been, their path to the Supers looks really straightforward.

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The only real potential for a hiccup is if they don’t use Prager in the second game. Nobody wants to disrespect an opponent, but the Aggies almost certainly don’t need Prager to beat Grambling. But he’d go a long way toward beating Texas or Louisiana and getting A&M into the regional final. The Aggies did try that strategy in the SEC tournament, and it backfired on them when Mississippi State beat them and forced them to use Prager against Tennessee.

But Grambling isn’t Mississippi State, and the Longhorns and Cajuns aren’t on the level of the Volunteers. Setting up the rotation that way should work this time around.

Potential Surprise

It has to be Louisiana, given the Cajuns’ pitching. Texas has a high ceiling but a very low floor, and it wouldn’t surprise anyone to see the Longhorns lose two of three (it’s highly unlikely anyone loses to Grambling) and end their year.

The Cajuns won 23 games in a good Sun Belt Conference, and they have an excellent bullpen. If they can hand the game to Langevin, they’re likely to emerge victorious.

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It wouldn’t surprise me to see Louisiana force Texas A&M into a winner-take-all game on Monday. But that seems to be as far as the Aggies get pushed here; they should be too deep for this regional.