NCAA Baseball Tournament – Charlottesville Regional

NCAA BASEBALL TOURNAMENT – CHARLOTTESVILLE REGIONAL — When you get a battle of contrasting teams, you’ve got a recipe for a good regional. That’s exactly what we have in Charlottesville, where the host Cavaliers attempt to hit their way past the pitching of Mississippi State and St. John’s.

Virginia brings the second-best batting average in the country (and the best in the field), hitting .341 as a team. There are no weak links in the Cavaliers’ lineup; eight of nine hitters bat .300 or better and the ninth hits .294. The Wahoos also steal bases well and hit for power, making them dangerous in every frame.

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Mississippi State and St. John’s will try to counter with pitching. The Bulldogs thought they should have been a seed, but Arizona was surprisingly selected over them. Instead, they open with Big East champ St. John’s, which excels at run prevention. Neither side is all that strong at the plate, with the Red Storm severely lacking power.

Penn isn’t likely to be a threat. The Quakers do have a home run hitter in Wyatt Henseler, but they struggled to get outs against a schedule that included just two Power 6 opponents all season. Both games were against Villanova, which didn’t qualify for the Big East tournament and got swept by Incarnate Word, the eighth-place team in the Southland. The difficulty curve will be far too much for Penn to overcome.

Players to Watch

Bobby Whalen leads Virginia at the dish with a .403 batting average, although he isn’t much for power. Just 13 of his 58 hits went for extra bases, as he’s more of the guy who sets the table. Once he gets on, though, look for Henry Ford (17 HRs, 62 RBIs) and Harrison Didawick (23 HRs, 67 RBIs) to come through and bring him home.

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The Cavaliers pretty much have to save Evan Blanco for the Mississippi State-St. John’s survivor. Doing anything else won’t work with Virginia’s patchwork pitching staff, as the Cavaliers don’t even have a reliable No. 2 pitcher. Virginia has to go with bullpen games outside of Blanco’s one start, and Penn’s weakness means there’s little point to wasting him in the opener.

Jimmy Keenan’s the only home run threat St. John’s has, as the Red Storm only hit 41 homers on the year. St. John’s will try to win with its combination of Mario Pesca and Xavier Kolhosser on the mound. Mississippi State has a pair of hitters in Dakota Jordan and Hunter Hines, but the Bulldogs tend to be home run, walk or strikeout.

The Favorite

Can Virginia hit its way to the Super Regionals? The Cavaliers posted a 5.60 ERA for the season but blasted opponents for a 9.41 ERA, and they did win 41 games in a rugged ACC. But the regionals are a different beast, and pitching depth usually comes into play.

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The Cavaliers have used a total of 20 pitchers this season, and they’re likely to pull a pitcher as soon as he’s struggling. The exception is Blanco, who’s going to go as long as possible.

Potential Surprise

Penn isn’t going to threaten anyone in this regional, and St. John’s doesn’t have the hitting to handle Virginia. If anyone is going to upset the apple cart, it’s going to be Mississippi State. It’s a question of Virginia’s hitting against Mississippi State’s pitching.

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The Bulldogs thought they should have had a seed, and now’s their chance to prove it. It feels more like the Cavaliers have the advantage and will win this contest. Virginia might have problems in the Supers, but the Cavaliers should find their way out of the regional.