Navy vs. Army Expert Pick and Prediction – December 14, 2024

NAVY VS. ARMY EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – December 14, 2024 — It’s the final game of the regular season, and an odd situation at that. Army arrives having already played 12 games, by virtue of winning the American conference title last week.

The Black Knights routed Tulane to win the league title, but their most important game has always been the Army-Navy game. This game can save or ruin a season for both service academies, and if the Black Knights don’t get the win here, the other 11 victories will all be for naught.

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And Navy is anything but a pushover. The Midshipmen have proven competitive for years in the American, and they had a fine year by going 8-3. Because of the nature of the Army-Navy game, this technically isn’t a conference game and never will be. Instead, Navy finished third in the American, just missing out on joining Army in the conference title game.

The Mids’ loss to Tulane kept them out of the league title game, and that was the same Tulane team that Army beat with ease. That leads the consensus to the Black Knights winning the Army-Navy game again, which would make it three years’ running and seven times in nine years. That said, the teams have combined for 19 wins this season, the most ever going into an Army-Navy game.

The Odds

Kickoff

When: Saturday, December 14 at 3 p.m.

Where: Northwest Stadium, Landover, Md.

TV: CBS

Public Bets: Unavailable

Public Money: Unavailable

Navy vs. Army In-Season Trends

The biggest thing with this game has always been to take the under, no matter what it is. And there’s a reason for it: both schools run the triple option, which means the clock is constantly moving. Army ranks dead last in the nation in passing yards at 83.2 per game, and Navy isn’t a heck of a lot better at 128.2 per game.

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Both teams run the ball very well, but the triple option becomes far less effective against a defense that sees it every day. And that’s why this game is almost always close and low scoring. The past three Army-Navy games have been decided by a total of 13 points, and none by more than six points. Meanwhile, the under is 8-1-1 in the past 10 meetings, and the one time the game went over was because it went to overtime.

Weather

Partly cloudy, 41 degrees and no rain in the forecast is about as good as it gets for the Army-Navy game. The weather is cooperating in a big way here.

The Difference-Makers

Here’s how committed Army is to running the ball: quarterback Bryson Daily has almost twice as many rushing yards as he does passing yards. You won’t find that anywhere else in college football; Daily has rushed for 1,480 yards to lead the Black Knights as one of two 1,000-yard rushers.

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Blake Horvath hasn’t gone to quite that extreme, but that’s almost been by necessity. Navy doesn’t have that powerful second option this year, so Horvath has had to throw more often than Navy wants. That’s partially why the over is a bit higher this year than in years past.

The Pick

It’s hard to pick a spread this high, but the way the teams performed against common opponent Tulane says that there’s a fair amount of reason to believe Army is just better.

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The Black Knights have two strong running options; the Mids only have one. Army hasn’t lost to a conference opponent all year, and its only loss came to Notre Dame. Navy will likely slow down Army’s ground attack, but probably can’t stop it. The Black Knights should do enough to win this one.