Nate’s WM Phoenix Open Preview

Nate’s WM Phoenix Open Preview

NATE'S WM PHOENIX OPEN PREVIEW - The crew at GodzillaWins was absolutely all over Peter Malnati at 220/1, and for a brief moment, we thought maybe we had tapped into some sort of sorcery as he climbed up the leaderboard. Briefly, he was even in the lead. 

Sadly, It was too good to be true and Justin Rose was just too strong. When you have a former major winner in a field that weak, with a leaderboard full of so many players lacking real closing experience, that’s sort of what you expect. He made birdies to pull away and then just put the car into cruise control for the last five holes. Alas, we move on to this week and one of the wildest tournaments on the calendar.

That’s right, the Tour is headed to Scottsdale (if you want to call it Hottsdale, I won’t stop you), and my oh my is that a fun place. Add in the energy of this tournament on Super Bowl Sunday and we are talking about an absolute electric factory out there. 

This is the one of the boosted events that the Tour is doing to pump up field strength and increase purses. It’s one of four to be designated as such on a rotation this season, so it will be interesting to see how the big names perform out here.

The Field

18 of the top 20 players in the world are teeing it up this week, so this baby feels a lot more like a major than a stopover in the desert on a party weekend. The only guys in the top 20 who won’t be here are Willy Z(alatoris) who is resting and still coming off of a back injury, and Cam Smith who isn’t eligible to compete as the Tour wages war with the Saudi government over the LIV Tour. 

From a betting perspective, this isn’t going to feel at all like last week or the week before when we were targeting sneaky longshot fliers and mid-tier guys with value. 

I’m not saying we need to be loading up on Rahmbo and Rory to pad our retirement accounts, but there are some real dudes lurking near the top at prices they are seldom available at.  I’m thinking here about guys like Cantlay and Morikawa who can both be had in the 20/1 range.

We’ll get to more specific picks tomorrow, and I’ll have some longshots for the adrenaline junkies, but my eyes are firmly set on guys like I just mentioned as the bedrock of my betting card.

DISCLAIMER: Godzilla Wins is for entertainment purposes only. Must be 21 or older, and reside in states where sports wagering is legal only. If you or someone you know has a gambling problem, call the Problem Gambling Helpline at 888-532-3500.

The Course

TPC Scottsdale’s Stadium Course plays host to the raucous festivities this week just north of Phoenix. We know what we are getting with this course. It tips out at around 7,200 yards and plays to a par 71.

The desert lurks often off the tee and guys will need to drive it well to compete here. The green complexes are massive, so the short game heavy guys who we target on courses with smaller greens like Pebble last week are out of the rotation here.

This is a course that above all favors guys who are really strong tee to green. Previous winners here are, to a man, a compendium of elite ballstriking. You don’t have to be long to win here. Webb Simpson has a W in recent memory and nobody is in a hurry to call him a power player. But other winners like Hideki, Brooks Koepka, Phil Mickelson, and Gary Woodland are big time power hitters off the tee. Basically, we need guys who strike it well. This isn’t a glorified putting contest like we’ve seen at other recent tournaments like in La Quinta. 

The Atmosphere

Your humble author would be remiss to not mention that this tournament is weird. It’s not pleasant golf claps and hushed whispers here. 

The 16th hole at TPC Scottsdale is home to the absolute wildest scene in golf. An otherwise fairly benign short par 3 is transformed into an absolute party zone with bleachers set up all around it. Players get booed for poor shots and doused with beer showers for good ones. It is complete mayhem. 

It’s a lot for players to deal with and it’s clear some feed off that energy, while others don’t love it. I suspect that the environment is why this event has occasionally struggled to draw fields of this caliber on a regular basis, but with this boosted level, we get to see guys like Rory take on the challenge for only the second time in his career.