Nate’s Week 1 Quick Picks
NATE’S WEEK 1 QUICK PICKS – We. Are. Back. Welcome everyone to another season of the NFL. Now that those fantasy lineups are set, survivor pool entries submitted, and eternal optimism abounds, let’s take a look at all of my best bets for today.
I’m going to be moving through these quickly. No muss, no fuss, just winners.
1 PM EST Games
San Francisco at Pittsburgh (+2, o/u 41.5)
This is basically just an autobet for me. Tomlin is absurd as an underdog, and he’s particularly good when he’s at home and/or he’s a ‘dog with a spread under a TD.
Shanahan sucks ATS in Week 1 as he’s gone 1-5 in his career. I’m not really a Brock Purdy truther quite yet. I think it’s possible he may be weirdly good, but I’m still treading lightly, particularly after he comes back to action after the elbow injury suffered at the end of last season.
Here’s my bottom line. Pittsburgh’s defense should be nasty, and I think SF may not be quite as strong as the hype machine would indicate. My friends are nearly all Niners fans, and I find them insufferable. Today I will be watching this game with many of them, but my money will be elsewhere.
Pick: Pittsburgh Steelers +2
Houston vs. Baltimore (-9.5, o/u 43.5)
I’m a Texans fan now. I think they made a lot of great moves over the offseason after sending Lovie Smith into his 14th forced retirement. DeMeco Ryans was an excellent hire, they finally drafted their franchise QB, and they drafted the best defensive talent in the draft. Everything is looking up for Houston.
I know people are excited about Baltimore, but I’m a little skeptical. They’re installing a new offense which, theoretically, means that they’ll utilize more of Lamar Jackson’s skillset beyond handing the ball off in exotic ways. Offense sometimes take a little while to gel, and the Ravens still look bereft of talent in terms of people to catch the ball. Mark Andrews — their biggest weapon — is out for this game, which only further hampers them.
I’m probably way too high on the Texans and everyone will get to call me stupid for it soon, but that’s where my money is headed. I’ll be playing them with the points and a little sprinkle on the money line too.
Pick: Houston Texans +9.5
Tennessee at New Orleans (-3, o/u 42)
I’m deeply skeptical of whatever John, my delusional radio co-host, has to say about the greatness of the Titans. They’re mediocre, bolstered only by Mike Vrabel’s ability to get them competitive week-to-week.
That being said, this is a pretty good matchup for a healthy Titans team. They should be able to generate quite a bit of pass rush against Carr, who tends to wilt under even the slightest amount of heat.
We would be remiss to not mention that Vrabel is hilariously good as an underdog. He’s won over 50% of his games outright while an underdog. If you isolate games where he’s been a ‘dog of three points or more and his stats get even sillier as he’s covered 71% of those games against the spread.
Here’s the narrative: Titans ended last season in pure free fall and the Saints are trying to upgrade a weird roster.
Titans aren’t getting enough respect here.
Pick: Titans +3
Arizona at Washington (-7, o/u 38)
If you’ve read my articles for any length of time, you know that my toxic trait is finding reasons to bet on utterly hopeless losers.
Here we go again. The Cardinals QB room is pretty much a clown show with or without Kyler Murray. Without Murray, the discussion moves to how bad can Josh Dobbs be. My answer is, I’m not entirely sure, but he’s been serviceable in the past. I watched him move the ball decently against the Cowboys at the end of last season in a meaningless game for the Titans, and since then he’s had a stopover in Cleveland before moving on to life in the Sunny Southwest.
My big thing is, Washington isn’t very good. They will lose a lot of games because the rest of the NFC East is significantly better than they are. The Commanders aren’t really setting the world on fire with their QB room right now, either. Is Sam Howell really the guy you want to be laying a touchdown with in his first meaningful start in an NFL game? No.
This is Week 1, and crazy stuff always happens to ruin survivor pools. I wouldn’t be shocked if the Cards ruined a bunch of them today.
