Nate’s Best Outright Bets for the Masters
NATE’S BEST OUTRIGHT BETS FOR THE MASTERS – It’s April and the major tournament season is upon us. As the only major venue that plays the same course every year, the Masters is always the most straightforward handicapping of the year. The wide fairways and difficult greens allow for a lot of different styles to have success here though.
This is often where players who are relatively weak putters can break through in a major because the difficulty of the putting surfaces can tend to neutralize their typical disadvantage. We’ve also seen players who struggle with loose shots off the tee stack up some wins here because escaping with par after an errant tee shot is easier at Augusta National than most places.
Above all, players who have success here tend to win this event multiple times in their career. Tiger, Phil Mickelson and Bubba Watson are all recent examples of guys who have donned the green jacket more than once.
Let’s get into my favorite bets from each tier.
The Favorites
Brooks Koepka +1600
He’s the ultimate big game hunter and he’s going to win here at some point. He’s finished T2 here twice, most recently last year. There isn’t anyone who is more form irrelevant when it comes to majors. Brooks just doesn’t get up for regular events, so I’m not putting much stock into his lackluster LIV finishes recently.
He’s spent a year thinking about how he should be the defending champ this year. At these odds, I’d prefer him to the bigger favorites like Rory or Scottie
Xander Schauffele +1400
Xander isn’t sneaking past anyone at majors. For a guy still looking for his first major, and who has done everything except win this season, you’re just going to have to take a hard gulp and hit submit on this bet based on talent alone. He’s logged at T2 and T3 at this tournament in addition to another top 10 last year.
A major is the next big leap in his career and this is probably the most likely venue.
Midtier
Joaquin Niemann +3000
I’m done sleeping on the LIV guys. They continue to be solid in majors and have earned my respect. He’s in this tournament with a special exemption because he is actually good at golf and doesn’t spend his interviews talking about how unfair professional sports are like Talor Gooch.
His major results aren’t awesome considering how good he’s been, however. He’s the best on LIV this season and he notched a DP World win in December.
He’s got the ballstriking profile to do well here. He is comfortable shaping the ball both directions and his iron play is elite. The putter is often the question mark with him but we see a lot of bad putters have success here (Hideki, Vijay Singh, Bernard Langer). He could join that list.
Will Zalatoris +4500
Another elite ballstriker who gives me heartburn every time he sizes up a three footer. He’s played here twice and has a solo second and T6 in those appearances.
He had to make some swing changes after a spinal fusion surgery put him on the shelf for most of last season. A lot has been made of his decline in clubhead speed, but that isn’t a huge problem this week. This course rewards players who understand how to get around it. We’ve seen a lot of older players have success here, so distance isn’t the most critical component.
He’s made the switch to the broomstick alongside Lucas Glover and Akshay Bhatia and it seems to have leveled things out for him on the greens.
Don’t overlook him this week.
Longshots
Sam Burns +6500
I don’t get too carried away with longshots here. Typically it’s best to hover near the top of the oddsboard for the Masters, but I can talk myself into Burns here for a few bucks.
He’s an elite putter by any metric on Bermuda greens, and he’s exceptionally long off the tee. The iron game is a concern for him, but he hits it far enough to offset some of my concerns about his long irons. There are warts with any player once you start dabbling in this range, but one could do worse than take a flier on an elite talents off the tee and on the greens.
Wyndham Clark surprised all of us by taking a massive step forward with his iron game at the US Open last year. Sam Burns could be this year’s major revelation.
Rickie Fowler +17000
These odds are just absurd. This is pure speculation on talent and course fit. It’s been a while since Rickie has come down Magnolia Lane. A rough stretch has kept him out since the Covid edition of this tournament in 2020, but he’s back this year.
He’s put together three top 10 finishes in his career here, and has only missed the cut once in seven tries.
Look, I’m not going to tell you he’s playing well right now. He isn’t. There isn’t a glaring issue for him except that he’s been sort of mediocre across the board. If anything, the driver is holding him back the most. Spraying it off the tee is perfectly acceptable at Augusta National.
Throwing beer money on one of the good guys on Tour at these odds is always a worthwhile way to lose money. So count me in.
