Murray State vs. Missouri Expert Pick and Prediction – August 29, 2024

MURRAY STATE VS. MISSOURI EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – August 29, 2024 — If you want to talk about not challenging yourself in the opener, Missouri certainly fits the bill. The Tigers gave themselves one of the easiest opponents in FCS in Week 1, scheduling a Murray State squad that got absolutely buried in the Missouri Valley last year.

The Racers moved into the MVFC last season to coincide with the school’s entry into the Missouri Valley in all sports. Unfortunately for them, the MVFC is the SEC of FCS football, and the Racers were hopeless against the tougher schedule. Things get no better here against a Missouri team that has its eyes on its first conference title in 55 years.

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The biggest question here is just how much of a workout Missouri coach Eli Drinkwitz decides his starters need. The Tigers have most of their roster back from last season, and there’s almost no danger in the first half of the season. Missouri won’t leave Columbia until October 5 at Texas A&M, and its first four opponents aren’t exactly a top-tier list: the next three include Buffalo, Boston College and Vanderbilt.

And that’s why, even though the Tigers have the talent to rout Murray State, this might be too many points. Missouri certainly has the talent to win by 50, but only if it keeps the starters on the field the entire game. That’s not going to come close to happening.

The Odds

Kickoff

When: Thursday, August 29 at 8 p.m. EST

Where: Faurot Field, Columbia, Mo.

TV: SEC Network

Public Bets: Unavailable

Public Money: Unavailable

Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of August 25th, 2024.

Murray State vs. Missouri In-Season Trends

Missouri has never lost to an FCS foe, but it’s only 9-6 ATS all-time against the lower division. It didn’t feel the need to embarrass South Dakota last year, as it pulled off a 35-10 win with the Coyotes catching 27 points. Under Drinkwitz, Missouri is 0-3 ATS against FCS opposition, beating Abilene Christian by 17 (while giving 31.5) and Southeast Missouri State by 31 (giving 34.5).

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Murray State split its FBS games against the spread last year, covering in a 21-point loss to Middle Tennessee State and failing to cover in a 56-0 whitewash at Louisville. The Racers’ biggest issue in 2023 was their defense. Outside of non-scholarship Presbyterian, Murray State didn’t hold anybody under 27 points. It’s hard to slow down the likes of North Dakota State and Southern Illinois, but the Racers also allowed a 1-10 Indiana State to drop 28 on them. 

Weather

The teams will hope the heat dies down by the time they kick off. Temperatures are set to sit in the low 90s for much of the day, but with a 7 p.m. kickoff, the worst might be over by the end of the first quarter. Unfortunately for the Tigers, that’s about the amount of time the starters will probably play.

The Difference-Makers

Missouri will likely use this game to figure out its ground attack. Cody Schrader traded in black for red as he joined the NFL’s 49ers, so the job now falls to either Nate Noel or Marcus Carroll. Both had strong seasons at previous stops in the Sun Belt, and both should be comfortable running behind an experienced offensive line.

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Jawuan Northington is the most experienced weapon the Racers have in their backfield. He did average 4.54 yards a carry last year, but only got 86 touches. He’ll likely be the featured back for this game.

The Pick

If Missouri needed to work on its passing attack, or if it was a younger team that needed to gain confidence, I could see this spread happening. But neither statement holds for these Tigers. Missouri needs to figure out its ground game, while Brady Cook and the receivers are set. Outside of the running game, this is an older team that doesn’t need many reps.

And that means the Tigers will likely run the football to see which back gives them the best chance in SEC play. That means the clock will be running, and Missouri probably isn’t going to have enough time to get the lead to 49 points. The Tigers will win comfortably, but the spread is too high to expect a cover.