Montana State vs. New Mexico Expert Pick and Prediction – August 24, 2024

MONTANA STATE VS. NEW MEXICO EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – August 24, 2024 — If ever a team could legitimately play the disrespect card, it’s New Mexico. The Lobos are at home, and they’re an FBS squad from the Mountain West against a team from the Big Sky. Granted, New Mexico hasn’t been a good FBS team in years and Montana State’s an FCS power, but the Lobos do get an extra 22 scholarships to use.

And yet, the sportsbooks opened this game by making Montana State a 4.5-point favorite. And the public decided that wasn’t anywhere near enough respect to the Bobcats. Since this game went on the board, the line has moved an unthinkable nine points in Montana State’s direction. The Lobos are now catching almost two full touchdowns at home to a team that hasn’t beaten an FBS opponent in 18 years.

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So can the Lobos make the general public look foolish? Absolutely, but winning the game is going to be tough. Montana State returns most of its top-10 squad from last year intact, and it comes in ranked fourth in the nation at that level. The Bobcats can absolutely play with several Mountain West teams, and victory isn’t out of the question.

New Mexico comes in with what it hopes will be a brand new start — and what coach Bronco Mendenhall hopes won’t be a familiar outcome. To his credit, Mendenhall only has one losing season to his name in his 17 years as a head coach. That came in his first year at Virginia, when the Cavaliers went 2-10. That year, the Cavaliers opened by losing by 17 to FCS power Richmond, who came in ranked…fourth in the nation in FCS.

The Odds

Kickoff

When: Saturday, August 24 at 4 p.m. EST

Where: University Stadium, Albuquerque, N.M.

TV: FS1

Public Bets: Unavailable

Public Money: Unavailable

Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of August 23rd, 2024.

Montana State vs. New Mexico In-Season Trends

The last time Montana State beat an FBS opponent was Dan Hawkins’ debut at Colorado. But that happened in 2006, and everyone involved in that game is long done with their college football careers. These Bobcats have only played three FBS opponents in the past five years, and none have resulted in a win. They came closest in 2021, when they fell by three to Wyoming.

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New Mexico has had no problem with FCS opponents in the past few seasons. Maine and Tennessee Tech aren’t anywhere near as good as Montana State, but the Lobos blasted both of them over the past two seasons. The Lobos haven’t lost to an FCS opponent in 13 years, last falling in overtime to Sam Houston State.

Weather

Storms are possible during this game, as it’s going to be a warm, humid summer day. Temperatures will hit 90 degrees, with a thundershower possible and winds at 10 miles per hour.

The Difference-Makers

Caleb Medford and Ryan Davis have to get some separation and make things easy on the passing attack. With a new quarterback under center in Devon Dampier, there’s a lot of room for doubt to creep in if things go wrong early. Medford was the main man for the Lobos last year with 551 receiving yards, and he has to do a better job of finding the end zone.

Montana State’s ground game takes a hit with running back Julius Davis and All-American center Justus Perkins on the sidelines. Tommy Mellott’s passing will have to play a large role if the Bobcats intend to pull the non-upset.

The Pick

When the lines came out, this was a game I had circled because of high value on the visitors. But too many people got word, and now the value is on the Lobos. New Mexico isn’t a good team by any means, but it shouldn’t be 14 points worse than Montana State. With Montana State having to pass a little more than usual because of injury, look for the total to also be in play.

Montana State does have the stronger team, but this reads more like a one-score win for the Bobcats.