Monday Night Football: Seahawks vs. Giants Expert Pick – October 2, 2023

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL: SEAHAWKS VS. GIANTS EXPERT PICK – OCTOBER 2, 2023 – The Seattle Seahawks head across the country to face the Giants on Monday night in scenic East Rutherford, New Jersey.

The Seahawks —  and Geno Smith, particularly — were something of a revelation last season, outperforming nearly all expectations. I thought the defense would be improved over last season’s version. They looked to have improved the roster on that side of the ball over the offseason, but those changes don’t seem to have worked as well as they’d hoped. The Seahawks have allowed 30, 31, and 27 this season, so the defense is still a concern.

The Giants come into this game looking about how I’d expected. They looked terrible against two very good teams in blowout losses. And they looked competent in a narrow victory over a shockingly mediocre (I thought they would be so much worse) Arizona Cardinals team.

The Odds

Kickoff

When: Monday, October 2nd at 8:15 EDT

Where: MetLife Stadium – East Rutherford, New Jersey

TV: ABC/ESPN

Public Bets: 75% on Seattle

Public Money: 52% on New York Giants

Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of October 2nd, 2023

Related: NFL Week Four Betting Preview

Seahawks vs. Giants In-Season Trends

The Giants haven’t covered a spread yet this season, and they are beset by injuries. That being said, Brian Daboll is very good after a loss at 6-1 against the spread. Daniel Jones, for his part, covers around 66% of his games following a loss.

The Giants are coming off a loss, so if you’re a trend guy, this is probably where you’ll lean.

For the Seahawks, Geno Smith and Pete Carroll have both been good throughout their careers as underdogs with against the spread marks of over 60% when they’re an underdog. But this is sort of tricky. They opened as underdogs, but now they’re favorites, so those numbers probably aren’t as relevant.

The real trend to take a look at is this: both defenses are terrible. Wink Martindale will probably try to dial up pressure on Geno Smith (something he isn’t awesome at dealing with), but ultimately this pick is probably going to come down to which offense performs more effectively.

The Seahawks have played pretty well offensively both on the ground and through the air. It’s more of a necessity than a luxury for them with how their defense has played, but hey, they’re 2-1.

The Difference-Makers

This is probably where it’s worth noting some injuries that could prove significant. Giants LT Andrew Thomas will be out for this game, and the offensive line has played poorly without him. Saquon Barkley is also out for the Giants, so it will be the two-headed monster of Matt Breida and Gary Brightwell in the backfield. Not terribly intimidating.

The Seahawks are also dealing with injuries along the offensive line, and like basically everyone else in the league, depth is an issue at the position. They’ll patch it together as best they can to try and give Geno a little bit of room to spread the ball to his very strong receiving corps of D.K. Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba.

My general sense is that the Giants present a lot fewer issues for the Seattle defense to contend with, than the other way around. Seattle simply has a ton of weapons on offense, and the Giants haven’t shown they can do much to stop anybody at this point in the season.

The Pick

You probably know where this is going. I like the Seahawks here. Yes, it’s a cross-country flight, but this is a Monday game which mitigates some of the travel concerns. I suppose I’ll be surprised by the Giants at some point this season, as I typically am, but this doesn’t feel like the spot. I paid a little extra on the juice and played them on the money line, but -2 is still fine.

Primetime unders have been a trend noticed by almost everyone this season as they’re hitting at a hilariously unsustainable rate. If you only bet the under in primetime games, you’d be 9-2 this season. At some point the market will correct on this, as it always does, and I’m not interested in playing many unders with these defenses on the field. So that won’t be a play for me this week.