Monday Night Football: Packers vs. Raiders Expert Pick

MONDAY NIGHT FOOTBALL: PACKERS VS. RAIDERS EXPERT PICK – Looks like we have another rather uninspired matchup for Monday Night Football this week, much like last week when the Seahawks absolutely demolished the Giants in prime time.

Neither of these teams are particularly good, though I think that the Packers have more to be optimistic about than the Raiders at this point in the season.

The Packers have managed to be 2-2 to this point in the season, and given how bad the defense has performed, this probably doesn’t feel too bad. Jordan Love has shown signs of life, particularly when he has a clean pocket and  little time to work. That’s good news. The Packers are rested coming into this game and getting healthier. They’ve split two coin flip games, gotten bodied by the Lions, and they destroyed Chicago to open the season.

The Packers are thus, fairly predictable. They’ve played close games with two teams that are about on their level of mediocrity (Falcons and Saints), got beat handily by a good team (Lions), and hammered a bad team (Bears).

The Raiders, on the other hand, just look like a mess. I’m not sure why franchises keep hiring broken men who clearly aren’t good head coaches, but here are the Raiders with Josh McDaniels. It looks about as we’d expect. He came in with the hype of being an offensive genius, and they’ve looked dismal on that side of the ball. The defense was going to be a problem, and it’s maybe worse than expected.

I’m thinking a lot about last week’s game where I thought the Seahawks were just a superior team. They went on to demolish the Giants. I can’t shake the feeling that I shouldn’t overthink this one and just ride with the clearly better team. But let’s get into it a little more.

The Odds

Tipoff

When: Monday, October 9, 2023 at 8:15 PM ET

Where: Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas, NV

TV: ABC/ESP

Odds courtesy of DraftKings

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Packers vs. Raiders Season Recap and Betting Trends

The Packers might be all right

I think it was fair to write off the Packers after trading Aaron Rodgers. It’s tough to predict what any team will look like sans a generational talent under center. Look no further than the unfolding catastrophe that is the New England Patriots without TB12.

The Packers have something that not a ton of other teams can boast, however, and that’s extreme organizational stability. They’ve rallied around their new franchise QB, Jordan Love, and he hasn’t looked as bad as many expected.

The defense stinks, the run game is basically nonexistent, and they have a problem at offensive line for as long as David Bakhtiari is on the sidelines (which is the rest of this season). Still, they’ve pretty much handled their business. Beating up on a weak Bears team to start the season was a good boost. They lost to the Falcons in a 1 pt. game, then followed it up by beating the Saints in a 1 pt. game the next week.

My thoughts are that the Packers should be fresh and ready for this. They’ve had a nice break after getting beat by the Lions on TNF.

The Raiders like to think they have a home field advantage in Vegas, but I’m beginning to think that it’s not very significant. Green Bay travels well everywhere, and I’d consider this to be a neutral field, at best.

The Raiders are still the Raiders

When talking about one of the most hilariously mismanaged teams, plagued by intense instability, it’s easy to be dismissive.

But we’ll go a little bit deeper.

The defense rates as one of the worst in the NFL, and the offense is right down there with it. They looked bad with Handsome Jimmy at the helm, and the entire team looked like they had somewhere better to be once Aidan O’Connell took over.

Jimmy G is back for this game after spending some time in the concussion protocol.

The only win this season came against an utterly hapless Denver Broncos team that struggles to contain anyone on defense. They ground out a 17-16 victory in that game against Denver who is currently allowing 36.2 PPG to opponents. That victory should not inspire confidence in anyone.

Since that season opening victory, they’ve lost by 28 to the Bills, lost by 5 to the Steelers, and lost by 7 to the Chargers. Do not be fooled by those close looking games against Pittsburgh and the Chargers. Those games were much more lopsided than the final score indicated and garbage time scores made it look competitive.

Simply, the Raiders are a disaster. And they will continue to be for as long as the brain trust in the front office continues to hire the absolute worst people to be on the sidelines. Josh McDaniels is clueless and has a ton of money on his contract remaining. Normally that wouldn’t be an issue to move on from, but the Raiders are still paying down the $50 million on the Jon Gruden fiasco. McDaniels is here to stay for the Raiders, and they will probably continue to suck unless he shows us all something that we’ve never seen before when it comes to his head coaching capabilities.

The Picks

The Spread

Jimmy G is back for the Raiders, which must be a relief after Aidan O’Connell nearly had his career ended last week when Khalil Mack sacked him six times.

The Packers defense can be vulnerable, but with the Raiders injuries and the murky status of Davante Adams, I’m not terribly scared of Vegas. Davante Adams is injured, and the Raiders only hope of moving the ball reliably is by getting him the ball. I doubt he alone can break this game open and make it scary.

The Raiders can’t run the ball at all and their defense is among the least intimidating in the league.

This is one of those spots where I’m not overthinking it and going with the superior team. I think Green Bay should probably be -2.5 in this game, so I’ll gladly take the points.

Pick: Green Bay +2

Over/Under

When teams are on extended rest, as both teams are this week, the under tends to be where I look. I’m always ranting about primetime unders anyways, and this added rest makes it even more enticing.

Since 2018, when both teams have more than a week of rest, the under is 92-47-1. If you’re looking at just this season, the under is 16-5.

The defenses are not good for either team, and I suspect that’s why the total is creeping up. Don’t be fooled, neither of these defense are bad enough to make either team look elite on offense. This game will likely be very, very ugly.

Pick: Under 45.5 points

Player Prop Bets

This is a weird one because there are a bunch of unknowns. Theoretically, this should be an interesting matchup with Davante Adams being shadowed by Jaire Alexander in an emotional showdown for Adams against his former team.

However, Adams is listed as questionable with a shoulder injury, but is expected to go in some capacity.

On the other side, Jaire Alexander has missed two games with a back injury, but is slated to suit up tonight.

So, we have an injured star receiver facing off against an injured star defensive back.

The total receiving yards for Davante Adams is set at 76.5 which feels about right.

I won’t be playing it at this number, but if you like the Raiders, you have to think they’ll try to get the ball to Davante Adams often against Jaire Alexander, who will be trying to acclimate to game speed after two weeks out.

Pick: Davante Adams over 76.5 receiving yard