Missouri vs. Texas A&M Expert Pick and Prediction – October 5, 2024

MISSOURI VS. TEXAS A&M EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – October 5, 2024 — Look up teams that are just surviving, and you’ll find both Missouri and Texas A&M pictured. The Aggies, of course, didn’t survive in Week 1 against Notre Dame, but they’ve done the job ever since then to get back in the top 25.

Missouri remains undefeated, but the Tigers have looked like they’re just a minute away from losing it all. They don’t have to play Georgia, Mississippi or Tennessee, so the road is set up for them to get to Atlanta. But to do that, they’re going to have to be much better than they’ve been. The past two weeks have seen them fall behind against Boston College and Vanderbilt, neither of whom are contenders for anything more than a minor bowl game.

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The Tigers have pulled their way back in the second half each time, but they can’t count on that every game. And against Texas A&M’s defense, that might be where it stops being possible. The Aggies haven’t impressed anyone on offense, but they have done well on the other side of the ball.

Texas A&M hasn’t allowed more than 23 points since Notre Dame in Week 1, and the Aggies haven’t allowed more than 20 in any of their four wins. If the Aggies can get a lead while Missouri sleepwalks through the first half again, this might be the upset the Tigers have avoided to this point.

The Odds

Kickoff

When: Saturday, October 5 at Noon EST

Where: Kyle Field, College Station, Texas

TV: ABC

Public Bets: Unavailable

Public Money: Unavailable

Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of October 1st, 2024.

Missouri vs. Texas A&M In-Season Trends

Given how infrequently these teams have played, it’s hard to believe that they have been members of the same league in two different iterations since 1996. Since Missouri and Texas A&M left the Big 12 together for the SEC, they’ve only played three times. Two of those were because they were forced rivals while the SEC figured out how to get an Arkansas-Missouri rivalry going, so 2021 is really the only meeting since they became full SEC members.

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And one thing that has been consistent in their matchups is points. In their past seven meetings, the winner has never scored fewer than 28 points, and the combined total has only gone under 49 on one occasion. A&M is a bit more defensive-oriented than in past years, but Mike Elko was responsible for the A&M defense in 2021. His defense actually did its job that day, holding Missouri to 14 points in a 35-14 Aggie win in Columbia.

Weather

While fall arrives in full force in the north, Texas is firmly saying, “not here”. Temperatures will sit around 94 degrees at kickoff, with a potential thunderstorm on the horizon later in the day.

The Difference-Makers

Brady Cook has mostly spread the ball around well, which has worked out for Missouri as a whole but hasn’t meant many points. Theo Wease is the leading receiver with 26 catches out of Cook’s 92 completions. That means Missouri is likely to try to nickel-and-dime Texas A&M down the field, rather than go for the big play.

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Leveon Moss has topped 100 yards in two of his past three games for the Aggies, and he’s averaging six yards a carry. The Missouri defense has to keep him in check to win this game.

The Pick

The Tigers have the more talented roster, but their sleepwalking through the first half of games is very concerning. At some point, Missouri is going to find itself in a situation where it doesn’t have enough time for a desperate comeback.

With that being the case, I don’t want to mess with the full game here. This is a situation where Missouri could very easily come back and win, especially given A&M’s issues on offense. The best thing to do here is take the Aggies on the moneyline in the first half and get out.