Missouri vs. Mississippi State Expert Pick and Prediction – February 1, 2025

MISSOURI VS. MISSISSIPPI STATE EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – February 1, 2025 — Facing Alabama at home wasn’t the boost that Mississippi State needed. Now the Bulldogs get the slower-paced version of the Crimson Tide in Missouri.

The Tigers have mostly been rolling through the SEC as of late, mainly on the strength of their 3-point shooting. Only Kentucky shoots the triple better than Missouri among SEC squads, which is why the Tigers have won five of their past six games. The one loss was to Texas, and that came because the Tigers couldn’t hit anything in Austin. That night, Missouri shot 18% from behind the arc, mainly because of Texas’ defense.

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But the Longhorns excel at defending the 3-pointer. Mississippi State absolutely does not. The Bulldogs have the second-worst perimeter defense in the SEC, ahead of only Vanderbilt. Alabama knew that and basically fired at will earlier this week, hitting 15 of 31 from downtown.

That was the game, as Mississippi State lost by 4. The Bulldogs actually got more looks at the hoop than the Tide did, but they lost because Alabama shoots the triple so much better than they do. Missouri lacks one advantage that Alabama has, as the Tigers aren’t great offensive rebounders. But they are better shooters than the Crimson Tide, which means the Bulldogs have their hands full again.

The Odds

Tipoff

When: Saturday, February 1 at 1 p.m.

Where: Humphrey Coliseum, Starkville, Miss.

TV: SEC Network

Public Bets: Unavailable

Public Money: Unavailable

Missouri vs. Mississippi State In-Season Trends

Mississippi State has loved this matchup as of late. The Bulldogs are 8-2 SU and 9-1 ATS in their past 10 meetings with the Tigers, and they’re 8-0 in that stretch when the game ends in regulation. However, that would be a reversal of recent trends, as the Bulldogs haven’t won a game in regulation in any of their past six. Mississippi State is 2-4 SU in its past six games, and the Bulldogs really haven’t looked impressive in that stretch.

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The Tigers have been as reliable as it gets against Power 5 competition. Missouri is 7-1 ATS in its past eight against Power 5 opponents, dating back to the game in St. Louis with Illinois. The loss to Texas is the only time the Tigers have failed to cover in 2025.

The Difference-Makers

Caleb Grill has been lights out for Missouri in three of the Tigers’ past four games. Against Florida and Arkansas, Grill shot 60% from behind the arc, and the Tigers survived the Gators and won easily against the Razorbacks. Mississippi State absolutely cannot afford to let Grill get hot if it’s going to have a chance.

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Josh Hubbard’s not a great shooter, unless he gets to the free throw line. He scores as many points as he does because he gets a lot of opportunities. Mississippi State has to win the battle on the boards to take control of the game.

The Pick

Missouri is shooting too well to ignore here. The Tigers didn’t shoot well against Texas, but that’s Texas. The Longhorns pride themselves on their defense. The Bulldogs do not, and they’re likely to pay the price here.

Mississippi State has been better at home, but a team that has won in Gainesville isn’t likely to get intimidated in Starkville. This game requires good 3-point defense and Mississippi State doesn’t have it. The Tigers might well win this outright.