MINNESOTA VIKINGS VS. NEW YORK JETS EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTIONS — October 6, 2024

MINNESOTA VIKINGS VS. NEW YORK JETS EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTIONS — October 6, 2024 — Greetings, football fans. Welcome back to our NFL coverage here at Godzilla Wins. One of several games on Sunday’s slate features the Minnesota Vikings (4-0 SU, 4-0 ATS) taking on the New York Jets (2-2 SU, 2-2 ATS).

Here is a look at which squad has the edge going into this matchup and why.

Kickoff

When: Sunday, October 6, 2024 @ 9:30 AM ET

Where: Tottenham Hotspur, London, England

TV: NFL Network

Minnesota Vikings vs. New York Jets Odds

Odds courtesy of DraftKings

Minnesota Vikings vs. New York Jets — In-Season Stats & Betting Trends

Following a 31-29 win over the Green Bay Packers in Week 4, the Vikings remain perfect in 2024. In the best four-game stretch of his career, Sam Darnold completed 20 of 28 passes for 275 yards, with three TDs and one interception. The seventh-year quarterback has 11 touchdowns against just three picks on the season. Aaron Jones powered the ground game with 93 yards on 22 carries, while Justin Jefferson led the receiving corps with six catches totaling 85 yards and one touchdown.

At the opposite end of the spectrum, the Jets are coming off a disappointing 10-9 loss against the Denver Broncos. Aaron Rodgers finished 24 of 42 for 225 yards and ran the ball five times for 26 yards as well.  Despite holding the Broncos to 186 total yards and 3 for 14 on third down, the Jets came up short in a game they should have won. At the same time, giving up five sacks and being penalized 13 times is certainly not a recipe for success.

New York struggled with protecting the quarterback against Denver. Look for that trend to continue against a Vikings squad that leads the league in sacks and ranks second in takeaways. Now that we have set the stage for this matchup, let’s examine the betting trends for both teams.

The Spread

Despite their 4-0 record, the Vikings opened as a 3.5-point underdog. But at the time of this writing, they are currently a 2.5-point favorite (via OddsShark.com). Let’s see how both teams have fared against the spread.

• The Vikings are 4-1 ATS in their last five games.
• Minnesota is undefeated against the spread in its previous five matchups against AFC East opponents.
• The Vikings have covered the spread nine times in their last 13 Sunday contests (9-3-1).
• Meanwhile, the Jets are just 4-10 ATS in their previous 14 outings.
• In its last nine matchups against NFC teams, New York is 1-7-1 against the spread.
• The Jets have covered the spread at an 80 percent success rate in their last 10 October outings (8-1-1).

Prediction: Minnesota Vikings (-2.5)

Over/Under

This matchup’s projected scoring output is 40.5 points (via BleacherNation.com). Here are the teams’ over/under trends for this contest.

• The total has gone UNDER seven times in the Vikings’ last 10 home games.
• In Minnesota’s last six outings against AFC East opponents, the UNDER total has prevailed five times.
• The total has gone OVER four times in the Jets’ previous five matchups against Minnesota.
• The OVER total is 4-2 in New York’s last six Week 5 contests.
• Minnesota and New York are averaging a combined 48 points per game, but they have allowed only 30.3 points per outing, 10.2 points less than the projected over/under for this matchup.

Prediction: UNDER 40.5 points

Player Prop Bet

Sam Darnold leads the NFL in passing touchdowns and passer rating, and he just won Offensive Player of the Month. For those reasons, he is the key player to watch for the host team. He currently has -115 odds of exceeding 218.5 passing yards and -115 odds of finishing with less than 218.5 yards (per DraftKings). Here’s a look at how his numbers stack up against the estimated points total.

• During the season, Darnold is averaging 233.0 yards per outing.
• In his lone career matchup against the Jets (in 2021), Darnold finished 24 of 35 for 279 yards and a touchdown.
• The Vikings have played two of their games at home this season. In those contests, Darnold has averaged 224.5 yards per game.
• Darnold has averaged 224.2 yards per game across his previous five outings, exceeding the yards total for this matchup twice during that stretch.

Prediction: Sam Darnold OVER 218.5 passing yards