MINNESOTA VIKINGS VS. INDIANAPOLIS COLTS EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTIONS — November 3, 2024

MINNESOTA VIKINGS VS. INDIANAPOLIS COLTS EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTIONS — November 3, 2024 — Greetings, football fans. Welcome back to our NFL coverage here at Godzilla Wins. One of the games on tap from today’s slate features the Minnesota Vikings (5-2 SU, 5-2 ATS) hosting the Indianapolis Colts (4-4 SU, 7-1 ATS).

Here is a look at which squad has the edge going into this matchup and why.

Kickoff

When: Sunday, November 3, 2024 @ 8:20 PM ET

Where: U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, MN

TV: NBC

Minnesota Vikings vs. Indianapolis Colts Odds

Odds courtesy of DraftKings

Minnesota Vikings vs. Indianapolis Colts — In-Season Stats & Betting Trends

The Vikings got off to a hot 5-0 start but have stumbled the last two weeks, with back-to-back losses against the conference-leading Detroit Lions (31-29) and a somewhat surprising 30-20 loss to the Los Angeles Rams last week. As if the loss against the Rams was not bad enough, left tackle Christian Darrisaw will miss the rest of the season after tearing his ACL and MCL. His absence was felt, as Minnesota produced just 276 yards total yards, and the offensive line gave up three sacks. To help fill the void, the Vikings acquired Cam Robinson in a trade with the Jacksonville Jaguars. But whether Robinson can be as impactful as Darrisaw remains to be seen.

Meanwhile, near the season’s halfway point, the Colts have opted to bench second-year quarterback Anthony Richardson in favor of backup Joe Flacco, a move that is not expected to be a short-term decision, either.

“Joe will be our quarterback going forward,” head coach Shane Steichen said via NationalFootballPost.com. “I feel like Joe gives us the best chance to win. I’m just looking at where we’re at with the team. We’re at .500. It’s my obligation to 53 players in the locker room to win football games.”

Despite the mediocre 4-4 record, Indianapolis is an impressive 7-1 against the spread this season, with every game being decided by one score. Furthermore, the four losses were by a combined 14 points. Can Flacco help push the Colts over the .500 mark, or will the Vikings rebound from consecutive losses?

Now that we have set the stage for this matchup, let’s examine the betting trends for both teams.

The Spread

Despite a two-game losing skid, the Vikings enter this contest as a 5.5-point favorite (via OddsShark.com). Let’s see how both teams have fared against the spread.

• The Vikings are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall.
• Minnesota has covered the spread four times in its previous five November outings.
• In the last 10 games they have played in Week 9, the Vikings are 7-2-1 against the spread.
• The Colts are a perfect 6-0 ATS in their last six contests.
• Indianapolis is 5-0 ATS in its previous five matchups against Minnesota.
• The Colts have covered the spread with a 90 percent success rate (9-1) in their last 10 matchups against NFC North opponents.

Prediction: Minnesota Vikings (-5.5)

Over/Under

The projected scoring total for this matchup opened at 47.5 points. At the time of this writing, the line has moved to 47 points (via OddsShark.com). Here are a few trends that suggest why going with the “under” is the clever play here.

• The total has gone UNDER four times in the Vikings’ last five games against Indianapolis.
• The UNDER total is 8-4 in Minnesota’s previous 12 home contests.
• In the Vikings’ last seven matchups against AFC South opponents, the UNDER total has prevailed six times.
• The total has gone UNDER five times in the Colts’ last seven outings.
• In Indy’s previous five road games, the UNDER total is 4-1.

Prediction: UNDER 47 points

Player Prop Bet

Albeit in a losing effort, Justin Jefferson is coming off his second 100-yard game of the season. With that in mind, he is the key player to watch for the home team. He currently has -120 odds of accumulating 85.5 receiving yards and +100 odds of finishing with less than 85.5 yards (per Bet365.com). Here is a look at how his numbers stack up against the projected total.

• During the season, Jefferson is averaging 92.3 yards per game.
• In two career matchups against the Colts, Jefferson has averaged 83.5 yards per outing.
• The Vikings have played four home games this season. In those contests, Jefferson averages 96.8 yards per game.
• Across his last four starts, Jefferson has averaged 93.3 yards per game, exceeding the projected total for this matchup three times during that stretch.

Prediction: Justin Jefferson OVER 85.5 receiving yards