MINNESOTA VIKINGS VS. HOUSTON TEXANS EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTIONS — September 22, 2024

MINNESOTA VIKINGS VS. HOUSTON TEXANS EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTIONS — September 22, 2024 — Greetings, football fans. Welcome back to our NFL coverage here at Godzilla Wins. One of several games on Sunday’s slate features the Minnesota Vikings (2-0 SU, 1-0 ATS) hosting the Houston Texans (2-0 SU, 0-1-1 ATS).

Here is a look at which squad has the edge going into this matchup and why.

Kickoff

When: Sunday, September 22, 2024 @ 1:00 PM ET

Where: U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis, Minnesota

TV: CBS

Minnesota Vikings vs. Houston Texans Odds

Odds courtesy of DraftKings

Minnesota Vikings vs. Houston Texans – In-Season Stats & Betting Trends

The Vikings are perfect through their first two games. After knocking off the New York Giants by a 28-6 margin in Week 1, they followed that up with an inspired 23-17 victory against the reigning NFC champion San Francisco 49ers.

Sam Darnold, playing for his fourth team in seven seasons, finished 17 of 26 for 268 yards with two touchdowns and one interception. Justin Jefferson caught four passes for 133 yards and one touchdown before exiting the game in the third quarter with bruised quadriceps. Although the Vikings’ defense gave up 396 yards, this unit generated six sacks and held the Niners to 2-of-10 on third down.

Meanwhile, the Texans enter this tilt with an identical 2-0 record following their 19-13 win over the Chicago Bears in Week 2. C.J. Stroud completed 23 of 36 passes for 260 yards, with one touchdown and no picks. Nick Collins hauled in eight passes for 135 yards and one touchdown. Houston’s offense struggled in the second half, producing just one field goal after intermission. However, the defense sacked Caleb Williams seven times, recorded two takeaways, and held the opposition to just 205 yards.

Now that we have set the stage for this matchup, let’s examine the betting trends for both teams.

The Spread

Despite their impressive win over San Franciso, the Vikings enter this contest as a one-point underdog (via OddsShark). Here is a look at how both teams have fared against the spread.

• The Vikings are 3-9 ATS in their last 12 home games.
• Conversely, Minnesota has covered the spread six times in its last nine Week 3 outings.
• The Texans have failed to cover the spread in their last five matchups against Minnesota.
• Houston is 3-9-1 ATS in its previous 13 games as the favorite.
• The Texans are 0-2 ATS this season, while the Vikings have covered the spread in both of their games.

Prediction: Minnesota Vikings (+1)

Over/Under

The projected total for this matchup is 46 points (via OddsShark). Here is why going with the “under” is the intelligent choice.

• The total has gone UNDER four times in the Vikings’ last five games against AFC opponents.
• In Minnesota’s previous five September outings, the UNDER total has prevailed four times.
• The total has gone UNDER five times in the Texans’ last six matchups against NFC teams.
• Minnesota and Houston have given up just 31.5 points per outing, 15.5 points fewer than the projected total for this contest.

Prediction: UNDER 46 points

Player Prop Bet

Because Justin Jefferson’s status is questionable at the time of this writing, Sam Darnold is the player to watch for the Vikings in this matchup. He currently has -125 odds of throwing for more than 233.5 yards and -105 odds of finishing with less than 233.5 yards (via DraftKings). Let’s look at how his numbers stack up against the projected yards total.

• During the season, Darnold averages 238 yards per outing.
• In two career matchups against Houston, Darnold has averaged 278.5 yards per contest with a passer rating of 98.0.
• Minnesota has played one of its two games at home this season. In that contest, Darnold finished with 268 yards.
• Across his last five outings, the Vikings’ quarterback has averaged 153.2 passing yards per game.

Prediction: Sam Darnold OVER 233.5 yards