Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Denver Nuggets Expert Pick And Predictions – May 19, 2024

MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES VS. DENVER NUGGETS EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTIONS—MAY 19, 2024—Greetings, basketball fans. Welcome back to our NBA playoff coverage here at Godzilla Wins. One of the games on tap from today’s slate features the Minnesota Timberwolves (63-29 SU, 47-44-1 ATS) traveling on the road to take on the Denver Nuggets (64-29 SU, 43-48-2 ATS).

Here is a look at which squad has the edge going into Game 7 and why.

Tipoff

When: Sunday, May 19, 2024 @ 8:00 PM ET

Where: Ball Arena, Denver, CO

TV: TNT

Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Denver Nuggets Odds

Odds courtesy of DraftKings

Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Denver Nuggets – Series Recap & Betting Trends

Can The Minnesota Timberwolves Advance To The Conference Finals For The Time Since 2004?

The Timberwolves were riding a wave of momentum after taking the first two road games of this series. Then reality hit as the defending champs took each of the next three games to take a 3-2 series lead. But instead of wilting under the pressure, the Timberwolves responded with an EMPHATIC 115-70 win in Game 6 to force a seventh and final game in this conference semifinal series.

Anthony Edwards paced Minnesota’s offense with a game-high 27 points on 8-for-17 shooting overall and 4-for-9 from distance.

Jaden McDaniels added 21 points and four rebounds, connecting on eight of his 10 attempts while shooting 3-for-5 from beyond the arc. Mike Conley contributed 13 points, five assists, and four rebounds. The road team took the first four games in this series, but the home team won each of the last two contests. Which trend will unfold as these conference foes clash for the final time?

Can The Defending Champions Contain A Surging, Hungry Timberwolves Squad?

After falling into an 0-2 hole, the Nuggets responded with three straight victories and appeared to take control of the series. Unfortunately, the Timberwolves were not going to go away quietly, and they handed the defending champs the most lopsided postseason defeat since 2015. That season,  the Chicago Bulls beat the Milwaukee Bucks by 54 points to close out that first-round series.

Nikola Jokic led the team with 22 points and nine rebounds on 9-for-19 shooting from the field. He also grabbed nine rebounds.

Aaron Gordon scored 12 points, grabbed eight boards, and handed out four assists. Jamal Murray struggled, and that is putting it nicely. He finished with 10 points on 4-for-18 shooting from the field and just 2-for-7 from beyond the arc. Minnesota was the league’s top defensive team during the regular season, and that was certainly on display in Game 6, as they held the Nuggets to 30.2 percent overall and a woeful 19.4 percent from distance.

Will the champs be able to draw on their experience from a year ago one more time, or will the road team win for the fifth time in this series?

Now that we have set the table for this matchup let’s examine the betting trends for both teams.

The Spread

Despite losing by a whopping 45 points in Game 6, the Nuggets are a five-point favorite in Game 7 (per BleacherNation.com). Here is a look at how both teams have fared against the spread this season.

• The Timberwolves are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 contests.
• Minnesota is 8-4 ATS in their last 12 matchups against Denver.
• In their last 15 contests against Northwest Division opponents, the Timberwolves are 10-5 against the spread.
• The Nuggets are 4-1 ATS in their last five Sunday games.
• In the last six times in which they were installed as the favorite, the Nuggets are 1-5 against the spread.

Because they are the defending champs and the series finale will be played on their home court, I am inclined to go with the home team here. However, it will be a very close game, with the Timberwolves covering the five-point spread.

Prediction: Minnesota Timberwolves (+5)

Over/Under

The projected over/under total for this matchup opened at 199.5 points, but the line total has dipped to 198.5 points (per Pre-Game.com). Here is why going with the “over” is the smart choice.

• The total has gone OVER 12 times in the Timberwolves’ last 18 games.
• The OVER total is 9-4 in Minnesota’s last 13 games against Western Conference opponents.
• In the Timberwolves’ last seven Sunday games, the OVER total cashed in six times.
• The total has gone OVER four times in Denver’s last six Sunday home games.

Prediction: OVER 198.5 points

Player Prop Bet

The key player to watch for the home team is Nikola Jokic, the three-time MVP. He currently has -108 odds of scoring more than 30.5 points and -112 odds of finishing with less than 30.5 points.

Here is a look at how his numbers stack up against the projected points total for this matchup.

• Jokic is averaging 26.6 points per contest during the regular season and playoffs.
• In 10 games against the Timberwolves this season, Jokic has averaged 30.2 points per contest.
• During the playoffs, he is averaging 28.2 points per outing.
• Jokic has played against Western Conference teams 60 times this season (including the playoffs). In those contests, he is averaging 27.8 points per outing.
• The Nuggets’ big man averages 28.3 points per game in 20 matchups against Northwest Division opponents,
• Over his last 10 outings, Jokic has averaged 27.8 points and 13.0 rebounds per contest, exceeding the points total for this matchup four times during that stretch.

Jokic has averaged 23.3 points per game in the team’s losses in this series. But in the Nuggets’ win, the league MVP has averaged 33 points per contest. With the season on the line, look for the do-it-all center to make his presence felt in this contest.

Prediction: Nikola Jokic OVER 30.5 points