Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Denver Nuggets Expert Pick – April 10, 2024

MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES VS. DENVER NUGGETS EXPERT PICK – APRIL 10, 2024 — Greetings, basketball fans. Welcome back to our NBA coverage here at Godzilla Wins. One of the games on tap from tonight’s slate features the Minnesota Timberwolves (55-24 SU, 40-38-1 ATS) taking on the Denver Nuggets (55-24 SU, 36-41-2 ATS).

In a battle between two ball clubs with the same records and first place on the line, here is a look at which squad has the edge going into this matchup and why.

Tipoff

When: Wednesday, April 10, 2024 @ 10:00 PM ET

Where: Ball Arena, Denver, CO

TV: ESPN, ALT, and BSN

Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Denver Nuggets Odds

Odds courtesy of DraftKings

Minnesota Timberwolves vs. Denver Nuggets – Regular Season Stats & Betting Trends

Can The Timberwolves Top-Ranked Defense Hold Its Own Against The Nuggets?

 Minnesota Timberwolves Season Stats:

• Scoring Offense: 113.0 PPG – 18^TH
• Offensive Efficiency: 117.6 points per 100 possessions – 16^TH
• Scoring Defense: 106.0 PPG – 1^ST                      
• Defensive Efficiency: 110.3 points per 100 possessions – 1^ST

The Timberwolves are tied with the defending champions for the top record in the Western Conference with just three games remaining. Minnesota has produced eight victories across its last 10 outings and enters this matchup on a two-game winning streak.

This includes a 130-121 win against the Washington Wizards on Tuesday night. Anthony Edwards exploded for 51 points on 17-for-19 shooting from the field. He also tallied seven assists and six rebounds.

Rudy Gobert finished with a double-double that included 19 points and 16 rebounds while Mike Conley added 15 points and three assists.

Edwards credits head coach Chris Finch with the focus needed against one of the worst teams in the association.

“He put me in the office 2/3 days ago and said, ‘Look man we’ve got this Washington game, and we need to win it, need to come ready to play and you can’t treat it like any other game,’” Edwards said after the game.

With the victory, Minnesota improved to 12-5 without Karl Anthony-Towns in the lineup. However, KAT has been cleared for full contact, and 5-on-5 basketball activities and could return as soon as Friday. This would be a huge boost for this team heading into the postseason.

Can The Nuggets Claim The Top Spot Out West For The Second Straight Season?

 Denver Nuggets Season Stats:

• Scoring Offense: 114.7 PPG – 14^TH
• Offensive Efficiency: 120.8 points per 100 possessions – 5^TH        
• Scoring Defense: 109.7 PPG – 6^TH
• Defensive Efficiency: 115.5 points per 100 possessions – 9^TH

As I mentioned earlier, the Nuggets are also 55-24 on the season. They have posted seven victories in their last 10 decisions. And like Minnesota, they are riding a two-game winning streak as well.

This includes a 111-95 victory against the Utah Jazz on Tuesday night. Two-time MVP, Nikola Jokic, paced the team’s offense with 28 points, 13 rebounds, and seven assists. And from a defensive standpoint, he tallied four steals and four blocks. Simply put, he did some of everything for the Nuggets in that game.

“He was the defensive player of the game — four steals, three blocks, and five deflections. He took the challenge of guarding some of their bigger players and wanted that challenge,” Denver coach Michael Malone said about Jokic’s performance.

Not known for being an elite defensive team, the Nuggets held the Jazz to just 15 points on 25 percent shooting in the final frame. In other words, points may not be easy to come by in a clash between teams that are ranked in the top 10 in defense.

Now that we have set the table for this Western Conference showdown, let’s look at the betting trends for both sides.

The Spread

The Nuggets opened as a consensus 6.5-point favorite. The line has moved slightly to six points for the home team (per OddShark).  Here is a look at how both ball clubs have fared against the spread this season.

• The Timberwolves are 2-4 ATS in their last six outings.
• Minnesota is 5-0 ATS in its last five matchups against Denver.
• The Timberwolves are 5-1 ATS in their last six road games.
• In its last nine games against Western Conference opponents, Minnesota is 7-2 against the spread.
• In their last 14 games against Northwest division teams, the Nuggets have covered the spread just four times.

When the spread is 5.5 points or higher, the Nuggets are 20-22 against the spread. Conversely, Minnesota has a 3-1 record against the spread as a 5.5-point underdog or more this season.

Prediction: Minnesota Timberwolves (+6)

Over/Under

The projected over/under total for this matchup opened at 215 points (per Pre-Game.com).

At the time of this writing, the line has dipped to 212.5 points (via DraftKings). Here is why going with the “over” is the smart choice.

• The total has gone OVER four times in the Timberwolves last five games.
• The OVER total is 5-1 in Minnesota’s last six April games.
• The total has gone OVER 10 times in the Timberwolves’ last 15 matchups against Denver.
• These teams average a combined 227.8 points per game, which is 15.8 points higher than the 212 over/under total.
• The Timberwolves and Nuggets’ opponents are averaging 215.7 points per contest, which is 3.7 points higher than the over/under total for this matchup.

Prediction: OVER 212 points

Player Prop Bet

Fresh off his spectacular 51-point effort against the Wizards, the key player to watch in this matchup is none other than Anthony Edwards. He currently has -115 odds of scoring more than 26.5 points and -115 odds of finishing with less than 26.5 points.

Here’s a quick glance to see how his numbers stack up against the projected points total for this matchup.

• In 14 career games against the Nuggets, he is averaging 20.5 points per contest.
• On the season, Edwards is averaging 26.3 PPG across 76 outings.
• In 38 road contests, he is averaging 26.9 points per game.
• Edwards has played against Western Conference teams 48 times this season. In those contests, he is averaging 25.7 points per outing.
• In 14 matchups against Northwest Division opponents, he is averaging 25.9 points per game.
• Over his last five outings, Edwards has averaged 28.6 points per contest, exceeding the points total for this matchup three times during that stretch.

Given the trends, this could go either way. However, star players tend to rise to the occasion in big moments. And with top seed on the line, I expect Edwards to exceed the points total for this matchup.

Prediction: Anthony Edwards OVER 26.5 points