Minnesota Lynx vs. Phoenix Mercury: Expert Pick – July 1, 2023

MINNESOTA LYNX VS. PHOENIX MERCURY EXPERT PICK – JULY 1, 2023 — Greetings and salutations basketball fans. Welcome back to our weekend WNBA coverage here at Godzilla Wins.

After my earlier look at the Sun vs. Aces matchup, today’s second featured game sees the Minnesota Lynx (6-9) taking on the Phoenix Mercury (3-11).

Here is a look at which team has the edge going into this matchup and why.

Odds courtesy of DraftKings as of July 1, 2023. Table provided by editorial staff.

Tipoff

When: Saturday, July 1, 2023 at 10:00 PM ET

Where: Footprint Center, Phoenix AZ

TV: NBA TV, AZ Family, and BSN

Minnesota Lynx vs. Phoenix Mercury – Season Trends

The Minnesota Lynx got off to a rough start, suffering eight losses across their first 11 contests. Despite this, the Lynx have turned things around as of late, with three wins in four.

This includes a 99-97 OT win over the Seattle Storm on Thursday night. Napheesa Collier had one of her best performances of the season as she scored a team-high 31 points.

She also tallied eight rebounds, five assists, and six blocked shots:

Offensively, Minnesota is a mediocre ball club at best. The team ranks ninth in scoring (79.1 PPG) and they are a middle-of-the-pack team in terms of efficiency (100.4 points per 100 possessions).

And from a defensive perspective, the narrative isn’t much better as they are ranked 8th in scoring defense, and they have the second-worst defensive rating in the association.

Meanwhile, Phoenix has had a difficult season, to put it nicely. First, they dropped five of their first seven games. And over their last seven games, their record is an abysmal 1-6.

Fortunately, they did manage to get a 85-63 win in their recent outing against the Indiana Fever on Thursday night. Brittney Griner and Diana Taurasi – who both recently returned to the lineup – led Phoenix with 22, and 17 points, respectively.

Phoenix is a team that has struggled at both ends of the court this season. They are the lowest-scoring team in the league, and they have the second-worst offensive rating.

Additionally, the Mercury have the third-worst scoring defense (85.8 PPG) and the worst defensive rating in the league – allowing 110 points per 100 possessions. Given those stats, it’s no surprise why this team has struggled to put together wins this season.

So with all that accounted for, here are my betting trends for this contest.

The Picks

Although both teams are in the lower bracket of the Western Conference, the Mercury desperately need a win, and in the worst way.

The Spread

Despite their 3-11 record, the Mercury are a three-point favorite in this contest. I’m guessing the rationale behind the spread is that their top two players have recently returned to the fold. And while I may live to regret this, here is why I’m going with the Lynx to cover.

•       Minnesota has produced an 8-3 record against the spread in its last 11 games.
•       In the last 54 games they’ve played on a Saturday, the Lynx are 37-16-1 against the spread.
•       Minnesota has an identical 37-16-1 record ATS in their last 54 games against teams with a losing record. The Mercury are 3-11 on the season.
•       Lastly, Minnesota is 37-16-2 AT in the last 55 games between these two teams and 20-8 ATS in the last 28 times these teams have played in Phoenix, which is the venue for this contest.

Prediction: Minnesota Lynx (+3)

Over/Under

The projected over/under for this matchup is 162.5 points. Here is a look at why the OVER is the correct play here.

Dating back to last season, the teams have gone over the projected O/U total in four of their previous five meetings. This includes a 90-81 decision in favor of Phoenix back on May 25.

The OVER is 4-0 for Minnesota in its last four games against teams with a losing record. And the OVER has cashed in five times following a straight-up win.

In Minnesota’s last 28 games against western conference teams, the OVER has prevailed 18 times (18-8-2).

The OVER is 13-3 for the Mercury in their last 16 games against teams with a losing record. Minnesota is 6-9 on the season.

In the Mercury’s last 16 games against Western Conference teams, the OVER has cashed in 11 times (11-5).

Prediction: OVER 162.5 points

Player Prop Bet

My key player to watch in this contest is Minnesota Lynx forward Napheesa Collier. She currently has -120 odds of scoring over 22.5 points and -110 odds of scoring less than 22.5 points.

Collier is averaging a career-high in points (22.4) and rebounds (7.7). That said, her scoring average is right on par with the projected total here.

Also, Collier has scored at least 22 points in six of her last eight outings. Given these trends, I am going with the OVER here.

Prediction: Napheesa Collier OVER 22.5 points

James’s Picks

• Minnesota Lynx (+3)
• OVER 162.5 points
• Napheesa Collier OVER 22.5 points