MINNESOTA LYNX VS. NEW YORK LIBERTY GAME 4 EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTIONS — October 18, 2024

MINNESOTA LYNX VS. NEW  YORK LIBERTY GAME 4 EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTIONS — October 18, 2024 — Greetings, basketball fans. Welcome back to our WNBA coverage here at Godzilla Wins. Game 4 of the 2024 Finals series features the Minnesota Lynx (37-14 SU, 32-18-1 ATS) hosting the New York Liberty (39-11 SU, 24-25-1 ATS).

Here is a look at which squad has the edge going into this matchup and why.

Tipoff

When: Friday, October 18, 2024 @ 8:00 PM ET

Where: Target Center, Minneapolis,  MN

TV: ESPN

Minnesota Lynx vs. New York Liberty Odds

Odds courtesy of DraftKings

Minnesota Lynx vs. New York Liberty — Postseason Stats & Betting Trends

The Liberty and the Lynx were the top two teams in the “W” during the regular season. With that in mind, seeing these squads battling it out for the league crown is only fitting. In Game 1, we saw the Liberty jump out to an early lead. Not only that, but they held a 15-point advantage in the final frame before losing the game 95-93 in overtime. A similar scenario unfolded in Game 2 as the Lynx trimmed a nine-point deficit to two points in the fourth quarter. New York rose to the occasion, though, closing the evening with a 12-0 run, tying the series at one game apiece.

Liberty Move One Step Closer To Franchise’s First Title After Rallying From 15-Point Deficit

As the home team did in the first two games, the Lynx led by double digits after the first quarter and held a 43-35 advantage at the break. The Liberty closed within one point (62-61) after the third quarter, setting up a memorable final frame. New York led 74-73 before Sabrina Ionescu hit a three-pointer, giving them a 77-73 advantage with 55.5 seconds left to play. A bucket by Bridget Carleton and a pair of free throws from Napheesa Collier tied the game at 77.

Then it happened. On New York’s next possession, Ionescu hit another epic three-point shot, this time from the logo, giving the Liberty an 80-77 lead with exactly one second left in regulation. Minnesota failed to convert its final shot attempt and trails 2-1 in this best-of-five series.

Ionescu finished with 13 points, five rebounds and six assists. But despite her late-game heroics, Breanna Stewart’s spectacular effort at both ends of the floor put the Liberty in position to win the game. She scored a team-high 30 points (including 14 in the third quarter), pulled down 11 rebounds, and blocked four shots. Stewart also accounted for 22 of New York’s 45 second-half points. She provided this assessment as New York is one win from its first-ever WNBA championship.

“We know we’re one game away from winning the championship, and I think that they are going to give us their best shot,” Stewart said via ESPN. “They are going to give everything they have got, and you know what, so are we. The turnaround is quick, but we are going to continue to be ready.

New York is 0-5 in its previous five trips to the Finals. Will they end the series on Friday night, or can the Lynx extend it to a fifth and final game? Now that we have set the stage for this matchup, let’s examine the betting trends for both teams.

The Spread

Following their Game 3 loss to the Liberty, Minnesota is a 3.5-point underdog heading into Game 4 (per OddShark.com). Here is a look at how both teams have fared against the spread this season.

• The Lynx are 11-3 ATS in their last 14 games against teams with a winning record.
• Minnesota is 6-2 ATS in its last eight contests played on one day of rest.
• In the previous 12 matchups against Eastern Conference opponents, the Lynx are 9-3 against the spread.
• Meanwhile, the Liberty have covered the spread 10 times in their last 13 road games.
• New York is 7-2 ATS in its previous nine Friday night outings.
• In their previous nine “road” matchups against Minnesota, the Liberty are 2-5-2 against the spread.

Although the Lynx are down 2-1 in the series, they have covered the spread twice through the first three games. Look for that trend to continue even though their season may end on Friday night.

Prediction: Minnesota Lynx (+3.5)

Over/Under

As was the case in Game 3, this contest’s projected over/under total is 160.5 points (via OddsShark.com). Here is why going with the “over” is the intelligent choice.

• The total has gone OVER four times in the Lynx’s last five matchups against Eastern Conference teams.
• The OVER total is 5-2 the last seven times Minnesota has played on one day of rest.
• The total has gone OVER 15 times in the Liberty’s previous 23 games against the Lynx.
• The OVER total is 11-5 in New York’s previous 16 road outings.
• In the previous 19 encounters between these teams, the OVER total has prevailed 13 times.
• The OVER total has cashed in 11 times in the previous 16 meetings between these ball clubs in Minnesota.

Prediction: OVER 160.5 points

Player Prop Bet

Following her 22-point, nine-rebound effort in Game 3, Napheesa Collier is the key player to watch for the home team. She currently has -120 odds of scoring more than 20.5 points and -110 odds of finishing with less than 20.5 points (via Bet365.com).

Here is a look at how her numbers stack up against the projected points total for this matchup.

• During the postseason, Collier is putting up 24.9 points per game.
• Through the first three games of this Finals series, Collier has averaged 19.7 points and 8.0 rebounds per outing on 52 percent shooting from the field.
• The Lynx have played at home six times in the postseason. Collier is averaging 26.2 points per outing in those contests.
• In her last five outings, Collier has averaged 23.0 points, 8.4 rebounds, and 2.8 assists per contest, exceeding the points total for this matchup four times during that stretch.

Prediction: Napheesa Collier OVER 20.5 points