MINNESOTA LYNX VS. NEW YORK LIBERTY GAME 3 EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTIONS — October 16, 2024

MINNESOTA LYNX VS. NEW  YORK LIBERTY GAME 3 EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTIONS — October 16, 2024 — Greetings, basketball fans. Welcome back to our WNBA coverage here at Godzilla Wins. Game 3 of the 2024 Finals series features the Minnesota Lynx (37-13 SU, 31-18-1 ATS) hosting the New York Liberty (38-11 SU, 24-24-1 ATS).

Here is a look at which squad has the edge going into this matchup and why.

Tipoff

When: Wednesday, October 16, 2024 @ 8:00 PM ET

Where: Target Center, Minneapolis,  MN

TV: ESPN

Minnesota Lynx vs. New York Liberty Odds

Odds courtesy of DraftKings

Minnesota Lynx vs. New York Liberty — Postseason Stats & Betting Trends

In the series opener, the Liberty had a 15-point advantage with less than five minutes left to play. Despite the significant lead, though, New York lost the contest 95-93 in overtime. In Game 2, a similar scenario unfolded once again. The Liberty raced out to an early double-digit advantage and held a nine-point advantage (64-55) in the fourth quarter. But as they had done in Game 1, the Lynx fought back, trimming the deficit to two points.

Instead of faltering down the stretch as it had done in Game 1, New York closed the game with a 12-0 run, allowing the home team to cruise to a 14-point victory, tying this best-of-five series at one game apiece. Betnijah Laney-Hamilton, who is working her way back from a knee injury, finished with 20 points on 8-of-14 shooting from the floor and 4-for-6 from beyond the arc. This is significant as she had scored just 22 points in her previous four postseason contests.

Breanna Stewart Sets WNBA Finals Record

Meanwhile, as many recall, Breanna Stewart had a couple of miscues in Game 1. She missed a free throw that would have given New York an 85-84 lead in regulation. She also missed a layup in the closing seconds of OT, which would have tied the game at 93. With that in mind, the two-time MVP produced a signature performance in Game 2. Her final stat line included 21 points, eight rebounds, and five assists. By the way, Stewart also set a WNBA Finals record with seven steals.

“The moment the game ended Thursday night I was looking forward to Sunday to change things, change the narrative a little bit,” Stewart said via CBS Sports. “Be the same I was and be obviously better.”

The Liberty, who have the top-scoring defense in the postseason, held Minnesota to 66 points on 45 percent shooting from the field. This was the Lynx’s lowest-scoring game of the playoffs. New York also forced a whopping 20 turnovers while limiting Minnesota to 6-for-20 from three-point range. The venue shifts to the Target Center for Games 3 and 4.  On the one hand, Minnesota remains confident after getting the road split they needed. At the same time, based on what we have witnessed so far, this series will probably go the full five games.

Now that we have set the stage for this matchup, let’s examine the betting trends for both teams.

The Spread

Following their Game 2 loss to the Liberty, Minnesota is a 2.5-point underdog heading into Game 3 (per OddShark.com). Here is a look at how both teams have fared against the spread this season.

• The Lynx are 10-3 ATS in their last 13 games against teams with a winning record.
• Minnesota is 8-3 ATS in its previous 11 matchups against Eastern Conference opponents.
• In the previous 17 contests between these squads, the Lynx are 11-5-1 against the spread.
• Meanwhile, the Liberty have covered the spread five times in their last six road outings.
• New York is 1-7 ATS in its last eight Wednesday night games.
• In their previous eight “road” matchups against Minnesota, the Liberty are 2-5-1 against the spread.

Minnesota trimmed a double-digit deficit for the second straight game to make things interesting late before collasping down the stretch. Despite the 14-point loss in Game 2,  look for the home team to bounce back here.

Prediction: Minnesota Lynx (+2.5)

Over/Under

The projected over/under total for this is 160.5 points (via OddsShark.com). Here is why going with the “over” is the intelligent choice.

• The total has gone OVER 11 times in the Lynx’s last 16 games against teams with a winning record.
• The OVER total is 4-1 in Minnesota’s previous five home contests.
• The total has gone OVER seven times in the Liberty’s last 10 Wednesday night games.
• The OVER total is 5-2 in New York’s previous seven outings.
• In the previous 19 encounters between these teams, the OVER total has prevailed 13 times.
• The OVER total has cashed in 11 times in the previous 15 meetings between these ball clubs in Minnesota.

Prediction: OVER 160.5 points

Player Prop Bet

Napheesa Collier leads the Lynx in scoring, rebounding, steals, and blocks. Given that fact, she is the key player to watch for the home team. She currently has -115 odds of scoring more than 20.5 points and -115 odds of finishing with less than 20.5 points (via DraftKings.com).

Here is a look at how her numbers stack up against the projected points total for this matchup.

• During the postseason, Collier is putting up 25.2 points per game.
• Through the first two games of this Finals series, Collier has averaged 18.5 points and 8.0 rebounds per outing on a 60.8 percent shooting from the field.
• The Lynx have played at home five times in the postseason. Collier is averaging 27.0 points per outing in those contests.
• Over her last three outings, Collier has averaged 21.3 points, 9.0 rebounds, and 3.0 assists per contest, exceeding the points total for this matchup twice during that stretch.

Prediction: Napheesa Collier OVER 20.5 points