MINNESOTA LYNX VS. CONNECTICUT SUN EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTIONS — October 8, 2024

MINNESOTA LYNX VS. CONNECTICUT SUN EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTIONS — October 8, 2024 — Greetings, basketball fans. Welcome back to our WNBA coverage here at Godzilla Wins. Our Tuesday night schedule features the Minnesota Lynx (35-12 SU, 29-17-1 ATS) hosting the Connecticut Sun (32-14 SU, 21-24-1 ATS) in a winner-take-all Game 5 of the semifinals.

Here is a look at which squad has the edge going into this matchup and why.

Tipoff

When: Tuesday, October 8, 2024 @ 8:00 PM ET

Where: Target Center, Minneapolis, MN

TV: ESPN2

Minnesota Lynx vs. Connecticut Sun Odds

Odds courtesy of DraftKings

Connecticut Sun vs. Minnesota Lynx — Postseason Stats & Betting Trends

The Lynx and the Sun were the best defensive teams in the “W” during the regular season. That trend was on full display as the teams split the first two games of this second-round series while failing to score 80 points. The next two games were on Connecticut’s home court, and the offenses fared better. Minnesota took Game 3 by a 90-81 margin. Trailing 2-1 and their season on the line, the Sun responded with a 92-82 victory, forcing a fifth and final game

Napheesa Collier, who averaged 14 points per outing in Games 1 and 2, exceeded the 20-point  threshold for the second straight outing. She finished with 29 points, 13 rebounds, and three assists on 9-of-15 shooting from the field and 9-for-10 from the charity stripe. Natisha Hiederman added 16 points off the bench, and Courtney Williams finished with 11 points and four assists.

Meanwhile, the Sun’s offense featured a balanced attack, with four players reaching double figures. Tyasha Harris scored a team-high 20 points, including four 3-pointers. DeWanna Bonner finished with 18 points, eight rebounds, four assists, and four steals. Alyssa Thomas contributed 18 points, 11 assists, and eight boards for a Connecticut squad that shot 53.7 percent overall and an efficient 53.3 percent from the three-point line.

Minnesota is seeking its first Finals appearance since 2017 when it captured its fourth title in seven years. On the other hand, Connecticut is pursuing its second Finals appearance in three seasons. In 2022,  they were defeated by the Las Vegas Aces in four games.

Now that we have set the stage for this matchup, let’s examine the betting trends for both teams.

The Spread

The Lynx opened as a 3.5-point favorite. However, that line has recently moved to three points (per OddShark.com). Here is a look at how both teams have fared against the spread this season.

• The Lynx are 14-7 ATS in their last 21 games overall.
• Minnesota is 20-6-1 ATS in its last 27 Tuesday night outings.
• The Lynx are 8-2 ATS in their last 10 matchups against teams with a winning record.
• Meanwhile, the Sun are 5-2 ATS in their last seven road games.
• Connecticut is 4-1 ATS in its last five road outings against Minnesota.
• The Sun are 1-4 ATS in their last five matchups against Western Conference opponents.

Prediction: Minnesota Lynx (-3)

Over/Under

This matchup’s projected over/under total opened at 151 points (via OddsShark.com). Here is why going with the “under” is the intelligent choice.

• The total has gone UNDER 12 times in the Lynx’s last 16 home games.
• The UNDER total is 11-4 the last 15 times Minnesota has played on one day of rest.
• In the Lynx’s previous 13 games, the UNDER total has cashed in nine times.
• The total has gone UNDER 19 times in the Sun’s last 26 games following a straight-up win.
• The UNDER total is 16-6-1 in Connecticut’s last 23 matchups against Western Conference opponents.
• In the Sun’s previous 14 contests,  the UNDER total has prevailed nine times (9-4-1)

Prediction: UNDER 151 points

Player Prop Bet

Following her impressive 29-point, 13-rebound performance in Game 4, Napheesa Collier is the key player to watch for the home team. She currently has +105 odds of scoring more than 21.5 points and -135 odds of finishing with less than 21.5 points (via DraftKings.com).

Here is a look at how her numbers stack up against the projected points total for this matchup.

• During the postseason, Collier is putting up 27.2 points per game.
• Through the first four games of this semifinal series, Collier has averaged 20.8 points per contest on 46.9 percent shooting overall and 30 percent from beyond the arc.
• The Lynx have played four home games in the postseason. Collier is averaging 27.0 points per outing in those contests.
• Over her last three outings, Collier has averaged 21.3 points, 12.0 rebounds, and 3.7 assists per contest, exceeding the points total for this matchup twice during that stretch.

Prediction: Napheesa Collier OVER 21.5 points