Milwaukee Bucks vs. San Antonio Spurs Expert Pick – January 4, 2024

MILWAUKEE BUCKS VS. SAN ANTONIO SPURS EXPERT PICK – JANUARY 4, 2024 — Greetings, basketball fans. Welcome back to our NBA coverage here at Godzilla Wins.

One of the games on tap from Thursday night’s slate features the Milwaukee Bucks (24-10 SU, 15-19 ATS) taking on the San Antonio Spurs (5-28 SU, 13-20 ATS).

Here is a look at which team has the edge going into this matchup and why.

Tipoff

When: Wednesday, January 4, 2024 at 7:30 PM ET

Where: Frost Bank Center, San Antonio, TX

TV: TNT

Milwaukee Bucks vs. San Antonio Spurs Odds

Odds courtesy of DraftKings

Milwaukee Bucks vs. San Antonio Spurs — Regular Season Stats & Betting Trends

Can The Bucks Get Back On Track Against The Lowly Spurs?

Milwaukee Bucks Season Stats:

• Scoring Offense: 124.8 PPG – 2^ND
• Offensive Efficiency: 121.4 points per 100 possessions – 3^RD
• Scoring Defense: 119.7 PPG – 24^TH     
• Defensive Efficiency: 116.5 points per 100 possessions – 22^ND

The Milwaukee Bucks have the second-best record in the Eastern Conference. They are an impressive 7-3 across their last 10 outings. However, they enter this matchup amid a two-game losing streak. This includes a 142-130 loss to the Indiana Pacers on Wednesday night.

Giannis Antetokounmpo led the way with 26 points, 11 rebounds, eight assists, and three steals. Damian Lillard added 23 points, five assists, and three steals. This marked the fourth time the Pacers have beaten the Bucks this season.

Taking into consideration the lack of success against the Pacers this season, Milwaukee will take out some of that frustration against a Spurs team that is struggling at both ends of the floor.

Spurs’ Struggles At Both Ends Of The Floor Will Pave The Way For a Bucks’ Win?

San Antonio Season Stats:

• Scoring Offense: 110.9 PPG – 26^TH
• Offensive Efficiency: 107.8 points per 100 possessions – 29^TH
• Scoring Defense: 122.8 PPG – 27^TH   
• Defensive Efficiency: 119.3 points per 100 possessions – 25^TH

On the other side of this matchup, it has been a rough season for the Spurs. They have the worst record in the Western Conference and the second-worst record in the league behind the Detroit Pistons (3-31).

Not only that, but San Antonio has also dropped eight of its last 10 decisions. This includes a 106-98 loss to the Memphis Grizzlies on Tuesday night.

Rookie phenom, Victor Wembanyama, scored a team-high 20 points, along with seven rebounds, and four blocked shots. Keldon Johnson contributed 19 points, six boards, and four dimes.

Given the recent pair of losses for Milwaukee, combined with how poorly the Spurs have played this season, this has the potential to be a one-sided affair in favor of the road team.

Now that we have all the preliminary stuff out of the way, let us take a deep dive into the betting trends for both sides.

The Spread

The Bucks opened as a consensus 11.5-point favorite in this matchup. The line has dipped to 9.5 points for the road team. Here is a quick glimpse at how both teams have fared against the spread.

• The Bucks are 2-9 ATS in their last 11 matchups against San Antonio.
• Milwaukee is 2-4 ATS in its last six January games.
• The Spurs are 2-5 ATS in their last seven contests.
• San Antonio is 1-4 ATS in its last five matchups against Central Division opponents.
• The Spurs are 1-5 ATS in their last six January games.

Based on the above trends, neither team has played well against the spread this season. With that in mind, I am going with the more talented team to win and cover.

Prediction: Milwaukee Bucks (-9.5)

Over/Under

The projected over/under total for this matchup opened at 250 points. At the time of this writing, the line has moved to 249.5 points. Here is a look at why going with the “OVER” is the smart choice here.

• The total has gone OVER 12 times in the Bucks’ last 17 games.
• In Milwaukee’s last 20 road games, the OVER total cashed in 15 times.
• The OVER total has prevailed four times in the Bucks’ last five road contests against San Antonio.
• The OVER has hit nine times in San Antonio’s last 12 matchups against Milwaukee.
• In San Antonio’s last 10 Thursday games, the total went OVER seven times.

Prediction: OVER 249.5 points

Player Prop Bet

The key player to watch for the road team is Giannis Antetokounmpo. He currently has -130 odds of scoring more than 34.5 points and +100 odds of scoring less than 34.5 points.

• On the season, Antetokounmpo is averaging 30.8 points per outing.
• In 17 road games, he is averaging 30.8 PPG.
• Antetokounmpo has played against Western Conference teams four times this season. In those contests, he is averaging 27.5 points per outing.
• Antetokounmpo has played in five Thursday night games this season. In those outings, he is averaging 35.4 PPG.
• Over his last 10 outings, he is averaging 27.8 points per contest.

As the trends seem to indicate, going with the “under” for Antetokounmpo looks like the better choice here.

Prediction: Giannis Antetokounmpo UNDER 34.5 points

The key player to watch for the home team is Victor Wembanyama. He currently has -125 odds of scoring more than 18.5 points and -105 odds of finishing with less than 18.5 points. Here is a look at how his season splits stack up against his projected scoring total for this matchup.

• On the season, Wembanyama is averaging 18.9 points per outing.
• In 16 home games, he is averaging 19.9 PPG.
• Wembanyama has played against Eastern Conference teams eight times this season. In those contests, he is averaging 16.9 PPG.
• He has played four times on Thursday this season. His points-per-game average in those contests is 24.
• Over his last 10 outings, Wembanyama is averaging 18.9 PPG. He has exceeded the points total for this matchup five times during that stretch.

Based on the above trends, going with “over” for Wembanyama looks like a safe bet here.

Prediction: Victor Wembanyama OVER 18.5 points