Milwaukee Bucks vs. Minnesota Timberwolves Expert Pick – February 23, 2024

MILWAUKEE BUCKS VS. MINNESOTA TIMBERWOLVES EXPERT PICK – FEBRUARY 23, 2024 — Greetings, basketball fans. Welcome back to our NBA coverage here at Godzilla Wins. One of the games on tap from Friday night’s slate features the Milwaukee Bucks (35-21 SU, 21-35 ATS) taking on the Minnesota Timberwolves (39-16 SU, 29-25-1 ATS).

Here is a look at which team has the edge going into this matchup and why.

Tipoff

When: Friday, February 23, 2024

Time: 10:00 PM ET

Where: Target Center

Location: Minneapolis, MN

TV: ESPN

Milwaukee Bucks vs. Minnesota Timberwolves Odds

Odds courtesy of DraftKings

Milwaukee Bucks vs. Minnesota Timberwolves — Regular Season Stats & Betting Trends

Can The Bucks Bounce Back From A Disappointing Loss To Memphis?

 Milwaukee Bucks Season Stats:

• Scoring Offense: 122.0 PPG – 2^ND
• Offensive Efficiency: 119.8 points per 100 possessions – 5^TH
• Scoring Defense: 118.8 PPG – 23^RD                 
• Defensive Efficiency: 116.6 points per 100 possessions – 17^TH

The Bucks are currently sitting in third place in the Eastern Conference. However, they entered the All-Star break with just three wins across their last 10 outings.

This includes back-to-back losses against the Miami Heat (123-97) on Feb. 13 and a 113-110 loss to the Memphis Grizzlies two nights later.

Giannis Antetokounmpo paced Milwaukee’s offense with 35 points, 12 assists, and four rebounds.

Damian Lillard added 24 points, he shot just 7-for-21 from the floor and a forgettable 3-for-13 from beyond the arc.

Antetokounmpo was one of two starters who shot better than 50 percent from the field. Jae Crowder was the other starter although he attempted just four shots. The other trio that rounds out the starting five – Lillard, Brook Lopez, and Malik Beasley – shot a combined 15-for-45 overall and 8-for-32 from 3-point range.

Milwaukee will need to be much more efficient against the team with the best record out west and the second-best record in the association.

Can The Timberwolves Extend Their Winning Streak To Five Games?

 Minnesota Timberwolves Season Stats:

• Scoring Offense: 114.0 PPG – 3^RD
• Offensive Efficiency: 116.2 points per 100 possessions – 17^TH    
• Scoring Defense: 106.7 PPG – 1^ST
• Defensive Efficiency: 108.8 points per 100 possessions – 1^ST

Meanwhile, the Timberwolves sit atop the Western Conference with a one-game lead over the Oklahoma City Thunder. Minnesota has won seven of its last 10 outings and enters this matchup amid a four-game winning streak.

This includes a 128-91 victory over the Portland Trail Blazers on Feb. 15. Anthony Edwards scored a team-high 34 points along with seven assists, and six rebounds.

Karl Anthony-Towns added 23 points and eight rebounds, while Jaden McDaniels contributed 17 points and five rebounds. The Timberwolves’ win over Portland capped a five-game road trip in which they finished 4-1. The team’s margin of victory in those four wins was 18.5 points per contest.

Now that we have set the table for this matchup, let’s look at the betting trends for both sides.

The Spread

The Timberwolves opened as a consensus 3.5-point favorite. The line has recently climbed to 4.5 points for the home team. Here is a look at how both ball clubs have fared against the spread this season.

• The Bucks are 5-13 ATS in their last 18 games.
• Milwaukee is 13-7 ATS in their last 20 matchup against Minnesota.
• In their last 12 road contests, the Bucks are 1-11 against the spread.
• The Bucks are 4-1 in their last five road contests against the Timberwolves.
• The Timberwolves are 5-1 ATS in their last six games.
• Minnesota is 4-1 ATS in their last five February outings.

Given the above trends, going with the road team to cover is the best play here.

Prediction: Milwaukee Bucks (+4.5)

Over/Under

The projected over/under total for this matchup opened at 225 points. At the time of this writing, the line has not changed. Here is why going with the “over” is the smart choice.

• The total has gone OVER four times in the Timberwolves’ last five contests.
• The OVER total is 5-2 in Minnesota’s last seven matchups against Milwaukee.
• In the Timberwolves’ last eight contests against Eastern Conference teams, the OVER total hit six times.
• The OVER total has prevailed five times in Minnesota’s last seven matchups against Central Division opponents.

Prediction: OVER 225 points

Player Prop Bets

My key player to watch for the road team is Damian Lillard. He currently has -130 odds of scoring more than 24.5 points and +100 odds of finishing with less than 24.5 points.

Here is a glance to see how his numbers compare to the projected points total for this matchup.

• During the season, Lillard is averaging 24.6 points per outing.
• In 23 road contests this season, he is averaging 23.8 PPG.
• Lillard has played against Western Conference teams 15 times this season. In those contests, he is averaging 25.9 points per outing.
• In five matchups against Northwest Division opponents, Lillard averages 20.8 points per game.
• Over his last 10 outings, Lillard is averaging 21.7 points per game, while exceeding the points total for this matchup four times during that stretch.

Given the above trends, going with the “over” for Lillard is the smart choice here.

Prediction: Damian Lillard OVER 24.5 points

My key player to watch for the home team is Anthony Edwards. He currently has -120 odds of scoring more than 27.5 points and -110 odds of finishing with less than 27.5 points.

Let us look closer to see how his numbers stack up against the projected points total for this matchup.

• On the season, Edwards is averaging 26.3 points per outing.
• In 23 home contests, he is averaging 26.1 PPG.
• Edwards has played against Eastern Conference teams 19 times this season. In those contests, he is averaging 27.3 points per outing.
• In four matchups against Central Division opponents, Edwards is averaging 32 points per game.
• Over his last 10 outings, Edwards has averaged 28.4 points per contest, exceeding the points total for this matchup five times during that stretch.

Prediction: Anthony Edwards OVER 27.5 points