Milwaukee Bucks vs. Memphis Grizzlies Expert Pick – February 15, 2024

MILWAUKEE BUCKS VS. MEMPHIS GRIZZLIES EXPERT PICK – FEBRUARY 15, 2024 — Greetings, basketball fans. Welcome back to our NBA coverage here at Godzilla Wins. One of the games on tap from tonight’s slate features the Milwaukee Bucks (35-20 SU, 21-34 ATS) taking on the Memphis Grizzlies (19-36 SU, 26-29 ATS).

Here is a look at which team has the edge going into this matchup and why.

Tipoff

When: Thursday, February 15, 2024

Time: 8:30 PM ET

Where: FedEx Forum

Location: Memphis, Tennessee

TV: TNT

Related: Warriors vs. Jazz Pick & Prediction

Milwaukee Bucks vs. Memphis Grizzlies Odds

Odds courtesy of DraftKings

Milwaukee Bucks vs. Memphis Grizzlies — Regular Season Stats & Betting Trends

Can The Bucks Get Back On Track Against The Short-Handed Grizzlies?

 Milwaukee Bucks Season Stats:

• Scoring Offense: 122.2 PPG – 2^ND
• Offensive Efficiency: 119.9 points per 100 possessions – 2^ND
• Scoring Defense: 118.9 PPG – 23^RD              
• Defensive Efficiency: 116.7 points per 100 possessions – 18^TH

The Milwaukee Bucks sit in the third spot in the Eastern Conference playoff race and trail the second-place Cleveland Cavaliers by two games in the standings. Milwaukee saw its recent two-game winning streak snapped with a somewhat surprising 123-97 loss at the hands of the Miami Heat on Tuesday night.

Giannis Antetokounmpo paced the Bucks’ offense with 23 points, 11 rebounds, and eight assists. Damian Lillard added 16 points and five assists, while Malik Beasley contributed 16 points, three rebounds, and three steals.

The Bucks ‘ defense was non-existent after holding their last two opponents below 100 points. Not only did the Heat pour in 123 points, but they also scored efficiently, shooting 51.7 percent from the floor and 47.5 percent from long range.

“Just the speed, pace, they were quicker on everything, on both ends,” Rivers said postgame. “You have these nights. You hate ’em, but it is what is. For as bad as it looked defensively, I thought our offense was way worse tonight. I thought it started early. We were shooting 51 percent at halftime, and I thought we were playing just awful offense.

“The ball didn’t move a lot tonight, not the way it’s been moving. I think right now what our team is, we get our personality from the offensive end, and we don’t want that. We want to get our personality from the defense, from playing hard and doing defensive things.”

While the loss to the Heat was an ugly one, playing against a Grizzlies team that will be without its leading scorer for the rest of the season should be just what the doctor ordered for Milwaukee.

Can The Grizzlies Make This A Competitive Matchup?

 Memphis Grizzlies Season Stats:

• Scoring Offense: 106.7 PPG – 30^TH
• Offensive Efficiency: 107.7 points per 100 possessions – 30^TH    
• Scoring Defense: 113.1 PPG – 12^TH
• Defensive Efficiency: 114.1 points per 100 possessions – 10^TH

Meanwhile, the Memphis Grizzlies are currently in the No. 13 spot, and they have the third-worst record in the Western Conference. Additionally, the team has produced just one win in its last 10 decisions.

On a positive note, Memphis snapped its nine-game losing skid with a 121-113 win over the Houston Rockets on Wednesday. GG Jackson scored a team-high 20 points and nine rebounds off the bench.

Luke Kennard added 19 points on 5-for-7 shooting from the field and 4-for-8 from beyond the arc. Jaren Jackson Jr. finished with 18 points and three assists.

After leading by as many as 15 points in the first half, Memphis clung to a three-point advantage going into the fourth quarter before pulling away in the game’s final 12 minutes.

“We’ve been in different ballgames the last couple of weeks,” Memphis coach Taylor Jenkins said, via ESPN. “Up 20; down 20. Fighting back. A lot of this has come down to the fourth quarter. Defensively was huge late. There was great discipline.”

Although the Grizzlies hung on for a much-needed victory over the Rockets, the odds of them knocking off the Bucks are slim.

Now that we have set the table for this matchup, let’s look at the betting trends for both sides.

The Spread

The Bucks opened as a consensus 10-point favorite. At the time of this writing, the line has climbed to 11.5 points for the road team. Here is a look at how both teams have fared against the spread this season.

• The Bucks are 5-12 ATS in their last 17 outings.
• Milwaukee is 1-6 ATS in their last seven matchups against Memphis.
• In their last five road games against the Grizzlies, the Bucks are 1-4 against the spread.
• The Grizzlies are 9-4 ATS in their last 13 games.
• Memphis is 4-1 ATS in its last five home games against Milwaukee.
• In their last seven games against Central Division teams, the Grizzlies are 5-2 against the spread.

Despite the above trends, going with the road team to cover is the best play here.

Prediction: Milwaukee Bucks (-11.5)

Over/Under

The projected over/under total for this matchup opened at 224 points. The line has dipped to 223 points. Here is why going with the “over” is the smart choice.

• The total has gone OVER five times in the Grizzlies’ last six contests.
• The OVER total cashed in four times in Memphis’ last five games.
• In the Grizzlies’ last five February games, the OVER total hit four times.
• The OVER total has prevailed six times in Memphis’ last nine Thursday night games.

Prediction: OVER 223 points

Player Prop Bet

One of the key players to watch for the road team is Giannis Antetokounmpo. He currently has -110 odds of scoring more than 30.5 points and -120 odds of finishing with less than 30.5 points.

Here is a glance to see how his numbers compare to the projected points total for this matchup.

• During the season, Antetokounmpo is averaging 30.7 points per outing.
• In 23 road contests this season, he is averaging 32.9 PPG.
• Antetokounmpo has played against Western Conference teams 17 times this season. In those contests, he is averaging 31.8 points per outing.
• In seven matchups against Southwest Division opponents, Antetokounmpo averages 35.3 points per game.
• Over his last 10 outings, Antetokounmpo is averaging 29.2 points per game, while exceeding the points total for this matchup four times during that stretch.

Based on his body of work, going with the “over” for Antetokounmpo is the best choice.

Prediction: Giannis Antetokounmpo OVER 30.5 points

The key player to watch for the home team is Jaren Jackson Jr. He currently has -130 odds of scoring more than 22.5 points and +100 odds of finishing with less than 22.5 points.

Let us look closer to see how his numbers stack up against the projected points total for this matchup.

• On the season, Jackson is averaging 22.3 points per outing.
• In 25 home contests, he is averaging 23 PPG.
• Jackson has played against Eastern Conference teams 15 times this season. In those contests, he is averaging 23.7 points per outing.
• In six matchups against Central Division opponents, Jackson is averaging 24.8 points per game.
• Over his last 10 outings, Jackson has averaged 24.1 points per contest, exceeding the points total for this matchup six times during that stretch.

Prediction: Jaren Jackson OVER 22.5 points