Michigan vs. Michigan State Expert Pick and Prediction – January 30, 2024

MICHIGAN VS. MICHIGAN STATE EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – January 30, 2024 — Michigan has problems going to the Breslin Center under the best of circumstances. The Wolverines’ current situation is…not that.

Juwan Howard’s team is terrible, anchored to the foot of the Big Ten standings. Michigan has gone 1-7 in its past eight games, and the only positive is that the one was Ohio State. That buys a lot of goodwill in Ann Arbor, but not as much in basketball as it would in football. Out of those seven defeats, the Wolverines have lost four by double digits, including one to McNeese State.

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Things are only marginally better at Michigan State. The good news is that Tom Izzo certainly doesn’t have to worry about losing his job, and the Spartans at least play competent basketball at home. But the NCAA tournament is rapidly slipping away from Michigan State, and this game is only notable as the potential land mine as opposed to an opportunity. Beating Michigan only counts as a Quad 2 game, and if the Wolverines keep sliding, it could fall into Quad 3 by March.

As such, the only way the Spartans can do anything to help their profile tonight is by routing the Wolverines. Given that they’ve won five straight over Michigan in the Breslin Center, that’s fine by them. It also means that this might get worse before it gets better for the Wolverines.

The Odds

Tipoff

When: Tuesday, January 30 at 9 p.m. EST

Where: Breslin Center, East Lansing, Mich. 

TV: Peacock

Public Bets: 80% on Michigan State

Public Money: 58% on Michigan State

Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of January 30th, 2024.

Michigan vs. Michigan State In-Season Trends

Before Minnesota backdoored Michigan State last time here, backing or fading the Spartans was as simple as picking the home team to cover the spread. Even with that spread loss to the Golden Gophers, Michigan State is still highly reliable at home. The Spartans have gone 7-2 ATS and 8-1 SU in East Lansing since Nov. 17, and the only loss came against Wisconsin.

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Michigan’s just been bad. Other than the win over Ohio State, the Wolverines’ most recent cover came against Iowa on Dec. 1o. The Wolverines are 1-9 ATS in that stretch and aren’t even putting up a fight lately. It seems as if Michigan put all of its efforts into beating the Buckeyes and then decided that was the season, as they’ve lost three straight since then by double digits. Even worse, they’ve allowed 88 points or more in three straight games.

The Difference-Makers

Terrence Williams looked like he was heating up after hitting all five 3-point attempts against Ohio State. He followed the next two games without sinking a 3-pointer and shot just 2-for-8 from deep against Iowa. If he could get going again, it would make a big difference for Michigan’s efforts.

Given the Wolverines’ ball security issues, Tyson Walker has a chance to really make life miserable for Michigan’s ball-handlers. If Walker can get a few easy baskets off turnovers, the Spartans should pull away early.

The Pick

If anyone is going to get Michigan out of its funk, it’s Michigan State. But even that looks like it’s not enough. This Michigan squad honestly resembles what Michigan State football was: completely checked out and ready for the season to end.

The Wolverines know they won’t be making the NCAA tournament short of winning the Big Ten tournament, and they don’t appear the least bit bothered with January. Michigan State still has a chance and would love to add to the Wolverines’ misery. I think it does exactly that.