Michigan State vs. Oregon Expert Pick and Prediction – October 4, 2024

MICHIGAN STATE VS. OREGON EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – October 4, 2024 — When Jonathan Smith took the job at Michigan State, this is probably the last place he thought he’d find himself. Once again, Smith finds himself heading back to Autzen Stadium on the visiting sidelines, this time wearing green instead of orange.

Smith has been to Eugene five times to face Oregon, twice as a player and three times as a coach. And he’s 0-5 lifetime, as Oregon hasn’t lost at home to Oregon State since 2007. Now Smith brings his Michigan State team to his house of horrors, and there’s little chance that things go any differently.

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After a slow start, Oregon has begun to find its footing. It’s helped that the Ducks haven’t left the West Coast, as Oregon’s first Big Ten game came against long-time Pac-12 foe UCLA. Michigan State represents Oregon’s first game against a member of the old school Big Ten, albeit once again on the West Coast.

And while Smith is a solid coach and has Michigan State moving in the right direction, he is not a miracle worker. The Spartans are nowhere near the level of the Ducks or the rest of the Big Ten’s elite schools, as they showed last week against Ohio State. If they continue turning the ball over as they have, it could get really ugly in a hurry.

The Odds

Kickoff

When: Friday, October 4 at 9 p.m. EST

Where: Autzen Stadium, Eugene, Ore.

TV: Fox

Public Bets: Unavailable

Public Money: Unavailable

Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of September 30th, 2024.

Michigan State vs. Oregon In-Season Trends

The joy of conference realignment: consistently giving us games nobody asked for. At least this one has some intrigue with Smith facing Oregon again, but otherwise, it’s a forced matchup nobody cares about. There is a small amount of history, as the teams have played six times all-time and the home team has won all six. 

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Beating Dan Lanning in a conference game is one of the hardest things you can try to do unless you’re Washington, as Lanning is 15-1 against everyone else and 0-3 against the Huskies. Of course, Smith is the 1, having beaten Lanning when the Ducks came to Oregon State in 2022. But that was a far different situation, as Smith mostly had the house built by then in Corvallis and was playing at home. This time, neither is true.

Weather

By the time the teams take the field, it should be mostly pleasant in Eugene. Temperatures will be coming down from a high of 80 and dropping toward a low of 45. For this game, a 6 p.m. local start should have this game in the 60s.

The Difference-Makers

Aidan Chiles has to be better with the football. Smith isn’t going to another option, given that Chiles followed him from Corvallis to East Lansing, but Chiles cannot keep throwing to the wrong team. Five touchdowns against eight interceptions is not going to cut it, especially with the Spartans facing the likes of Iowa, Michigan and Indiana up next.

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Dillon Gabriel struggled out of the gate, but has mostly done well directing the Ducks’ offense. With nine scores and one interception on the year, Gabriel has taken good care of the football. Oregon hasn’t scored less than 30 points since Week 1.

The Pick

This is not a good time to be Michigan State right now. The Spartans really struggled against Ohio State, and now they have to turn around and try to compete with Oregon. A strong team would struggle with the two giants back-to-back, and Michigan State is not on that level.

Realistically, Michigan State has one hope: Oregon getting caught looking ahead to Ohio State. But this is the Ducks’ first home game in the Big Ten. They are not likely to look past this game. If it were in East Lansing, this would be a trap. In Eugene, it’s likely one-way traffic.