Michigan State vs. Ohio State Expert Pick and Prediction – January 3, 2025

MICHIGAN STATE VS. OHIO STATE EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – January 3, 2025 — Where Ohio State really stacks up against the best in the nation remains a mystery.

The Buckeyes were nowhere close against the likes of Maryland, Auburn or Texas A&M, losing those three games by an average of 25.3 points. But there’s also been a 20-point win over Kentucky, which says that much like their football team, the Buckeyes have a high ceiling and a low floor.

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Since Maui, Michigan State has been on a tear. The Spartans have now won their past six games, including wins over North Carolina and Nebraska. The win over the Huskers raised a few eyebrows around the Big Ten, given that Nebraska has won 10 of its 11 victories by double digits and dismissed Indiana with ease.

Michigan State doesn’t have a big road win yet, as Minnesota is the only true road game it has played. Getting a win in Columbus would make a big statement.

The Odds

Tipoff

When: Friday, January 3 at 8 p.m.

Where: Schottenstein Arena, Columbus, Ohio

TV: Fox

Public Bets: Unavailable

Public Money: Unavailable

Michigan State vs. Ohio State In-Season Trends

The best move in this series has been to ride with the underdog. In the past six meetings, the underdog is 5-1 ATS and has won the game outright on four occasions. Usually, Ohio State has been the underdog, but Michigan State has covered as the dog twice in the past six meetings and won the game outright both times.

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Ohio State has been as easy as it gets with betting. When the Buckeyes win, they cover the number. When they lose, they don’t. That’s the beauty of a team that has gotten blown out in all of its defeats: it’s pretty easy to know what to expect.

The Difference-Makers

Bruce Thornton is a big reason why Ohio State is coming off a pair of comfortable victories. In the Buckeyes’ past two games, Thornton has gotten to 30 points both times, and he’s coming off a 33-point showing against Indiana State last time. Ohio State excels at shooting the 3-pointer, and Thornton is a large part of that.

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With Tre Holloman in the lineup, the ball gets where it needs to go. Holloman became a starter six games ago, and it’s not a coincidence that Michigan State is 6-0 in those games. Last time out, he dished out six assists.

The Pick

The big concern for Ohio State is how often they send teams to the foul line. Michigan State makes an absolute living at the charity stripe, and the Buckeyes are far too happy to foul and send their opponents to the stripe. You can get away with that when you’re facing Kentucky, which doesn’t shoot very well from the line. Michigan State ranks fifth in the nation in free throw percentage, and Ohio State is likely to give away a lot of free points.

The Buckeyes might make up some of the damage from the arc, but 40 percent on 3-point shots results in far fewer points than 82% on free throws with a stopped clock.