Miami vs. Florida Expert Pick and Prediction – August 31, 2024

MIAMI VS. FLORIDA EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – August 31, 2024 — When Billy Napier took the job in Gainesville, nobody told him what was coming in 2024. Or if they did, Napier thought that he would have things coming along much faster at Florida, and it wouldn’t really matter.

Well, it’s here, and the Gators do not look prepared at all. Florida has yet to post a winning record in the Napier era, going 6-7 in 2022 and 5-7 in 2023. The Gators haven’t won a game since the seventh game of last season. They haven’t won more than three games in the SEC since 2020. Heck, they haven’t even beaten Kentucky in the past three seasons, and they scheduled the Wildcats for homecoming. (This is either a sign of how tough Florida’s schedule is, or a sign that the Gators are doing something wrong.)

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It’s highly possible that Florida will be an underdog in the final seven games it plays this season. And that means the Gators cannot afford any blown opportunities in the first half of the season. Miami, however, is in the same situation. Mario Cristobal didn’t endear himself to anyone in South Florida when he failed to run out the clock against Georgia Tech for his team’s first loss of the season. The Hurricanes sank from there, losing five of their final eight and ending the year with an unceremonious loss to Rutgers in the Pinstripe Bowl.

And yet, the Hurricanes are in better shape among the two fallen powers. The ACC just isn’t as dangerous as the SEC, which means there’s opportunity for the Hurricanes to bounce back. Still, a win in the Swamp would go a long way toward Cristobal restoring some goodwill.

The Odds

Kickoff

When: Saturday, August 31 at 3:30 p.m. EST

Where: Ben Hill Griffin Stadium, Gainesville, Fla.

TV: ABC

Public Bets: Unavailable

Public Money: Unavailable

Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of August 30th, 2024.

Miami vs. Florida In-Season Trends

These teams last met in 2019, but that’s a little different of a situation. The Gators were seen as ascending back then, while the Hurricanes had just started over with yet another new coach. That game was also played in Orlando, not a home site for either squad. Since Miami’s move to the ACC, the battle for the Seminole War Canoe (why isn’t Florida State involved in that?) has only been played three times.

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Miami hasn’t been great on the road as of late, losing three of its past five road openers. That includes the last time the Hurricanes set foot in an SEC stadium, a 17-9 loss to Texas A&M. Florida has won five straight home openers, although it’s only covered twice. However, one of the covers includes the one time they were catching points, a home win over Utah.

Weather

It’s Gainesville and it’s August. It’s going to be hot, it’s going to be gross and there might be some rain involved. Temperatures will hit 92 degrees, the heat index will feel like 101 and there’s about a 50% chance of rain. Enjoy.

The Difference-Makers

Graham Mertz seems to have gone to the DJ Uiagalelei school of quarterbacking. He’s not going to make mistakes with the football. He threw just three interceptions against 20 touchdowns last year for the Gators. He’s also not going to win you the game on his own. After what Anthony Richardson did in Gainesville, some Florida fans are probably grateful for a quarterback with a higher floor, but Mertz also has a lower ceiling.

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Interestingly enough, Cam Ward followed Uiagalelei out of the remnants of the Pac-12 and to the Sunshine State. While DJU went from Oregon State to Florida State, Ward came from Washington State and arrived in South Florida. He had plenty of success in the Cougars’ attack, and the Hurricanes need the same from him here.

The Pick

Who faces more pressure here? Hard to say. Neither school is particularly known for its patience, and both coaches have to be considered on the hot seat. That said, Florida might be a little more inclined to give Napier time. The Gators knew what they scheduled and they know how much of a meat grinder the SEC slate is. If Napier has the Gators competitive with this schedule, that would justify keeping him around.

Cristobal has no such lifeline. The Hurricanes would only keep him after a poor year if they decide they’re sick of the carousel. He needs this game more, and I think the Canes will play like it.