Miami vs. Clemson Expert Pick and Prediction – February 14, 2024

MIAMI VS. CLEMSON EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTION – February 14, 2024 — At 16-7, Clemson’s getting very close to sealing its spot in the NCAA tournament. Reversing its worst loss of the season just might do the trick. The rest of the Tigers’ schedule is loaded with land mines and one more opportunity at Wake Forest, so this is more about protecting what they’ve already earned.

Miami’s situation is far murkier. The Hurricanes still have the chance to pick up good wins over Clemson, Duke and North Carolina, so their hopes are far from finished. But they’re just 4-7 since whacking Clemson by 13, and they haven’t gotten the job done away from home.

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In its most recent game, Miami frittered away a golden opportunity to upset North Carolina, and in the game before, they scored just 38 points in a loss at Virginia. For the most part, Miami has hung with its opponents away from home, but the Hurricanes haven’t turned them into wins. If they want to avoid going from Final Four in 2023 to NIT in 2024, they’ve got to start winning some games outside of South Florida.

The Odds

Tipoff

When: Wednesday, February 14 at 7 p.m. EST

Where: Littlejohn Coliseum, Clemson, S.C. 

TV: ESPN2

Public Bets: 71% on Miami

Public Money: 69% on Miami

Odds courtesy of DraftKings, as of February 14th, 2024.

Miami vs. Clemson In-Season Trends

The oddsmakers have figured out that Miami usually neither gets blown out nor blows teams out. The Hurricanes have seen nine of their past 11 games decided by single digits, and that’s meant 10 straight games have held a single-digit line.

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The oddsmakers are far less adept at solving Miami on the totals, as the Hurricanes have played UNDER in six of seven. That’s because the Hurricanes commit fewer fouls than anyone in the ACC not named Virginia, meaning points rarely come with the clock stopped.

Clemson’s been remarkably consistent with its totals as of late. In its past six games, the variance has been just 12 points between Louisville’s 64 and North Carolina’s 76. Even that doesn’t tell the full story, as Carolina inflated its total with a meaningless 3-pointer at the horn. The Tigers’ range has been a bit less consistent, but they’ve found their way into the 70s in five of their past six games.

The Difference-Makers

Clemson has to do a better job on Miami’s starters. Neither team counts depth as a strength, but Miami took it to an extreme in the first meeting. The Hurricanes dropped 95 points on the Tigers and scored zero bench points. Wooga Poplar didn’t even play in that game, but Nijel Pack, Matthew Cleveland and Norchad Ormier shot a combined 26-for-40 from the field.

P.J. Hall made himself huge on the glass against Syracuse, North Carolina and Duke, but he was barely a factor in the loss to Miami. The Hurricanes’ biggest weakness is their interior defense and rebounding, which Hall should be able to exploit. He’s scored at least 19 points in each of his past five games. The Tigers need to make him their focal point.

The Pick

Miami tends to stick with teams and make life difficult for them, the Virginia game notwithstanding. But Clemson is getting top-level performances out of Hall right now, and the Hurricanes don’t really have anyone who can match up with him when he’s playing his best.

This is going to come down to whether the Hurricanes can blister the Tigers’ defense from deep again. If they can, Miami’s going to handle this number and might win it outright.

That’s a problem with Hall playing as well as he is, but Clemson also tends to play close games. Four of the Tigers’ past five have been decided by six points or less, and Miami should be able to hang around again.

Clemson should win the game, but Miami makes it interesting.