Miami Heat vs. Phoenix Suns Expert Pick – January 4, 2024

MIAMI HEAT VS. PHOENIX SUNS EXPERT PICK – JANUARY 5, 2024 — Greetings, basketball fans. Welcome back to our NBA coverage here at Godzilla Wins. One of the games on tap from Friday night’s slate features the Miami Heat (20-14 SU, 16-18 ATS) taking on the Phoenix Suns (18-16 SU, 12-21-1 ATS).

Here is a look at which team has the edge going into this matchup and why.

Tipoff

When: Friday, January 5, 2024 at 9:00 PM ET

Where: Footprint Center, Phoenix, AZ

TV: AZ Family Sports Network and Bally Sports Sun

Miami Heat vs. Phoenix Suns Odds

Odds courtesy of DraftKings

Miami Heat vs. Phoenix Suns — Regular Season Stats & Betting Trends

Can The Heat Get Their Third Win On The Last Stop Of Their Five-Game Road Trip?

Miami Heat Season Stats:

• Scoring Offense: 112.9 PPG – 23^RD
• Offensive Efficiency: 115.6 points per 100 possessions – 6^TH
• Scoring Defense: 115.6 PPG – 16^TH     
• Defensive Efficiency: 114.2 points per 100 possessions – 13^TH

The Miami Heat are holding down the No. 4 spot in the Eastern Conference, and they have produced six wins across their last 10 outings. This includes a 110-96 win over the Los Angeles Lakers on Wednesday night.

Tyler Herro paced Miami’s scoring with a team-high 21 points, along with six rebounds, four assists, and three steals. Rookie guard Jaime Jaquez Jr. tallied 16 points and eight assists, while Bam Adebayo contributed 15 points, seven boards, and five dimes.

Miami led by as many as 18 points in the first half, but the Lakers trimmed the deficit to two points at the 10:46 mark in the fourth quarter. But thanks to a 10-2 run that included 3-pointers by Duncan Robinson and Jaquez Jr., the road team managed to come away with a double-digit victory.

While the Heat’s strong fourth-quarter shooting (14-for-24 from the field & 6-for-11 from 3-point range) allowed them to eventually coast to an easy victory, that is not the strategy they want to utilize in this matchup against the Suns.

Can The Suns Bounce Back From A Poor Defensive Showing Against The Clippers?

Phoenix Suns Season Stats:

• Scoring Offense: 115.4 PPG – 13^TH
• Offensive Efficiency: 117.5 points per 100 possessions – 11^TH
• Scoring Defense: 114.1 PPG – 15^TH   
• Defensive Efficiency: 116.1 points per 100 possessions – 17^TH

Meanwhile, the Suns find themselves tied for the No. 8 spot out west and they have gone 5-5 over their last 10 contests. This includes a 131-122 loss to the LA Clippers on Wednesday night. Devin Booker scored a team-high 35 points and handed out six assists. Bradley Beal added 21 points but shot just 7-for-20 from the field while missing all six of his attempts from 3-point range.

While Phoenix did not have trouble putting the ball in the basket, their defense left a lot to be desired as the Clippers shot 55.3 percent from the floor, including an 18-for-34 effort (52.9 percent) from beyond the arc.

“Really proud of how we competed — we didn’t give up on the game. That’s a positive attribute for our team,” Suns coach Frank Vogel said, via ESPN. “I’m more concerned with how we started defensively. I don’t think we had the necessary disposition to guard an elite offense.”

The Suns will need a better defensive effort if they hope to get back into the win column against a Heat squad that can put up points in a hurry.

Now that we have all the preliminary stuff out of the way, let us take a deep dive into the betting trends for both sides.

The Spread

The Phoenix Suns enter this matchup as a 4.5-point favorite. The line has recently moved to 3.5 points. Here is a look at how both teams have performed against the spread this season.

• The Heat are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games overall.
• Miami is 2-5 ATS in its last seven matchups against Phoenix.
• The Heat are an impressive 13-2 ATS in their last 15 road contests against the Suns.
• Meanwhile, the Suns are 3-14 ATS in their last 17 decisions.
• Phoenix is just 1-7 ATS in its last eight home games

Prediction: Miami Heat (+3.5)

Over/Under

The projected over/under total for this matchup opened at 229.5 points. At the time of this writing, the line has moved slightly to 229 points. Here is a look at why going with the “UNDER” is the smart choice here.

• The total has gone UNDER times in the Heat’s last six games.
• The UNDER total has prevailed four times in Miami’s last five road contests.
• The UNDER total has cashed in 10 times in the Heat’s last 12 games against Western Conference opponents.
• In the Suns’ last nine games, the UNDER total has won six times.
• The total has gone UNDER four times in Phoenix’s last six matchups against Eastern Conference teams.

Prediction: UNDER 229 points

Player Prop Bet

The key player to watch for the road team is Bam Adebayo. He currently has -125 odds of scoring more than 21.5 points and -105 odds of scoring less than 21.5 points.

• On the season, Adebayo is averaging 21.7 points per outing.
• In 14 road games, he is averaging 22.4 PPG.
• Adebayo has played against Western Conference teams nine times this season. In those contests, he is averaging 22 points per outing.
• Adebayo has played in four Friday night games this season. In those outings, he is averaging 21 PPG.
• Over his last 10 outings, he is averaging 20.3 points per outing.

As the trends seem to indicate, going with the “over” for Adebayo looks like the better choice here.

Prediction: Bam Adebayo OVER 22.5 points

The key player to watch for the home team is Devin Booker. He currently has -110 odds of scoring more than 26.5 points and -120 odds of finishing with less than 26.5 points. Here is a look at how his season splits stack up against his projected scoring total for this matchup.

• On the season, Booker is averaging 26.7 points per outing.
• In 15 home games, he is averaging 27.9 PPG.
• Booker has played against Eastern Conference teams seven times this season. In those contests, he is averaging 25.9 PPG.
• He has played six times on Friday this season. His points-per-game average in those contests is 29.8.
• Over his last 10 outings, Booker is averaging 24.6 PPG. He has exceeded the projected points total for this matchup only three times during that stretch.

Based on the above trends, going with “over” for Booker looks like a safe bet here.

Prediction: Devin Booker OVER 26.5 points