MIAMI DOLPHINS AT GREEN BAY PACKERS EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTIONS — November 28, 2024

MIAMI DOLPHINS AT GREEN BAY PACKERS EXPERT PICK AND PREDICTIONS — November 28, 2024 — Greetings, football fans. Welcome back to our NFL coverage here at Godzilla Wins. Another game from the Thanksgiving  Day slate features the Miami Dolphins (5-6 SU, 5-6 ATS) visiting the Green Bay Packers (8-3 SU, 5-6 ATS).

Here is a look at which squad has the edge going into this matchup and why.

Kickoff

When: Thursday, November 28, 2024 @ 8:20 PM ET

Where: Lambeau Field, Green Bay, WI

TV: NBC

Miami Dolphins at Green Bay Packers Odds

Odds courtesy of DraftKings

Miami Dolphins at Green Bay Packers — In-Season Stats & Betting Trends

After splitting their first four games, the Packers have posted six wins in their last seven outings, including a 38-10 rout against the San Francisco 49ers. Jordan Love completed 13 of 23 passes for 163 yards with two touchdowns. Josh Jacobs had a solid outing, finishing with 106 yards on 21 carries and a career-high three touchdowns. He is a big reason the Packers have the third-best ground game in the NFL.

Defensively, the Packers held San Francisco to 3-for-10 on third down, giving up just 241 total yards and forcing three turnovers. To be objective, it is worth mentioning that San Francisco was a bit short-handed, as Brock Purdy, left tackle Trent Williams and edge rusher Nick Bosa sat out with injuries. But given that the Packers are clinging to a wild-card spot in the conference playoff race, they will take a win any way they can get it.

On the other side of this matchup, the Dolphins have rebounded from a 2-6 start with three straight victories, including a 34-15 win over the New England Patriots in Week 12. Tua Tagovailoa — who leads the league in completion percentage — finished 29 of 40 for 317 yards and four touchdowns. Wideouts Jaylen Waddle and Jonnu Smith had tremendous performances, combining for 17 catches totaling 231 yards, each recording a touchdown. Miami led by a sizable 31-0 lead after three quarters. Although New England added 15 points in the final frame, the game’s outcome was never in doubt.

Now that we have set the stage for this pivotal interconference showdown, let’s examine the betting trends for both teams.

Hey, make sure you check out our picks on the GW Daily Picks page.

Dolphins at Packers Spread Analysis

Having won each of their last two games, the Packers enter this matchup as a three-point favorite (via OddsShark.com). Let’s see how both teams have fared against the spread.

• The Packers are 1-4 ATS in their last five games.
• Green Bay is 8-1 ATS in its last nine Week 13 contests.
• In their last six Thursday home outings, the Packers are 2-4 against the spread.
• Meanwhile, the Dolphins are 4-1 ATS in their previous five games.
• Miami has covered the spread only once in its last seven matchups against NFC North opponents.
• In their previous five November matchups, the Dolphins are 5-0 against the spread.

Prediction: Green Bay Packers (-3)

Dolphins at Packers Over/Under Prediction

The projected scoring total opened at 49 points. However, at the time of this writing, the line has moved to 47 points (via OddsShark.com). Here’s why going with “under” is the intelligent choice.

• The total has gone UNDER nine times in the Packers’ last 12 games against Miami.
• The UNDER total has prevailed eight times in Green Bay’s previous 10 matchups against AFC opponents.
• In the Dolphins’ last six road games, the UNDER total holds a 5-1 record.
• The UNDER total is 5-0 in Miami’s previous five contests against Green Bay.

Prediction: UNDER 47 points

Dolphins at Packers Player Prop Bet

Fresh off his 106-yard, three-touchdown effort against the 49ers, Josh Jacobs is the key player to watch for the home team in this contest. He currently has -120 odds of rushing for more than 71.5 yards and -110 odds of finishing with less than 71.5 yards (via DraftKings). Let’s see how his numbers stack up against the projected yards total.

• During the season, Jacobs is averaging 85.8 yards per game.
• In two career matchups against the Dolphins (2020 and 2023), Jacobs has rushed for 108 yards on 27 carries.
• Jacobs averages 90.2 yards per outing in six home games this season.
• Across his last four starts, Jacobs has averaged 101 yards per outing, exceeding the projected yards total for this matchup in every game during that stretch.

Prediction: Josh Jacobs OVER 71.5 rushing yards